Millions in spending and star surrogates signal a tightening Mississippi Senate race

Key points

• President Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris both held rallies in Mississippi in late October to support their respective candidates, signaling the race's competitive nature.
• The Senate Majority PAC and Senate Leadership Fund have injected millions of dollars into the state, with Democrats spending approximately $5 million compared to $3.2 million for Republicans in October.
• Colom’s campaign capitalized on a viral clip of Hyde-Smith’s 'pick another protein' comment regarding high food prices, turning it into a central advertising theme.
• Hyde-Smith, who blocked Colom’s federal judicial nomination in 2023, has kept a low profile, declining debates and relying on Trump’s endorsement to mobilize her base.
• Black voters, comprising roughly 40% of the state’s population, are a critical demographic for Colom, though historical voting patterns and racial polarization remain significant hurdles.

Background

Mississippi has historically been a Republican stronghold, with no Democratic Senate winner since 1982. The current race follows a broader trend of competitive midterms in deep-red states, similar to recent shifts in Georgia and North Carolina. The state’s political landscape is further influenced by recent Supreme Court rulings affecting voting rights and redistricting efforts.

How outlets are covering it

The New York Times emphasizes the 'tantalizing' nature of the race, highlighting the influx of national money and star power as indicators of a potential upset. AP News focuses on the financial disparity, noting Democrats’ heavier spending this month. NPR provides a ground-level view, capturing voter sentiment and the emotional tone of rallies, while ABC News details the specific ad strategies and the personal history between the candidates, including Hyde-Smith’s past block of Colom’s judicial nomination.

Why it matters

The Mississippi race serves as a bellwether for Democratic ambitions in the South. A victory for Colom would mark the first Black senator from the state since Reconstruction and signal a shift in the political map. Conversely, a Hyde-Smith win would reinforce Republican dominance in the region. The outcome will also influence future redistricting efforts and the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.

What to watch

The race will conclude on November 3, 2026. Both campaigns are expected to continue heavy advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts in the final days. The results will likely determine the control of the Senate and the broader trajectory of the Democratic Party’s strategy in the South.