2024 Election: Poll Numbers, Democracy, and Trump's Dominant Lead

One year out from the 2024 election, polls show a close race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, with both candidates neck-and-neck among likely voters. Early polls, however, have limited predictive value and should be taken with caution. The national popular vote does not determine the winner, as it is the states and congressional districts that decide. Various scenarios suggest that neither party can assume an easy path to victory, with the underdog having a respectable chance in each scenario. Overall, the data points to another close race in 2024.