2026 Midterms: Democrats Chase House Flip as Trump’s Approval Plummets

Key points

• Democrats require a net gain of four Senate seats and three House seats to take control of Congress from Republicans.
• Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 35% overall and 50% among Republicans, down from 82% in March 2025, driven by inflation and cost-of-living concerns.
• Inflation is running at 3.7%, up from 3% at the start of Trump’s term, with consumer sentiment lower than during recent recessions.
• Early voting exceeded 54 million ballots, with Democrats showing larger increases than Republicans, though Republicans argue their base votes more on Election Day.
• A federal judge blocked the Trump administration from sending lists of alleged noncitizen voters to election officials in California and Washington, citing confusion and errors.
• The Justice Department deployed over 1,000 election monitors to all 50 states, the largest-ever effort, to observe for civil rights violations.

Background

The 2026 midterms are being viewed as a referendum on Trump’s second term, with voters expressing frustration over inflation and the war with Iran. Earlier coverage noted that early voting surged in key states like Texas and North Carolina, with Democrats showing higher turnout increases. Voters from both parties expressed anxiety about national decline, citing high gas prices and tariff impacts. The mid-decade redistricting changed boundaries for about one-third of congressional districts, but the national House map did not shift significantly toward either party. Trump has held 28 in-person rallies to mobilize his base, but some Republicans expressed frustration with his election eve speech, which focused on beautification projects rather than the election.

How outlets are covering it

AP News emphasizes the tight margins in both chambers and the potential for Democratic oversight and impeachment if they gain control. CNN highlights the record early voting numbers and the diversity of pre-election voters, noting that White voters made up 71% of the early electorate, down from 76% in 2022. Fox News focuses on the GOP’s defense of its slim majorities and Trump’s rallies, arguing that Election Day turnout will be decisive. Yahoo/The Hill notes Trump’s declining approval and the potential impact on his legacy, with some Republicans criticizing his election eve speech as off-topic. All sources agree that inflation and the war with Iran are key issues driving voter dissatisfaction with Republicans.

Why it matters

The outcome of the 2026 midterms will determine whether Democrats can check Trump’s agenda in his final two years in office. A Democratic majority in the House could lead to investigations and potential impeachments of Cabinet officials, while a Senate loss would weaken Trump’s ability to confirm judicial and executive nominees. The results will also signal the public’s response to inflation, the war with Iran, and immigration policies. A blue wave could significantly impact Trump’s legacy and the direction of US policy for the next two years.

What to watch

Polls will close between 6 p.m. and 1 a.m. Eastern Time, with final results potentially delayed in Alaska due to ranked-choice voting and legal disputes. Early returns may mislead due to staggered reporting of mail and early votes. The outcome of key Senate races in Texas, Michigan, and Kansas will be crucial in determining control of the Senate. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the Senate and three in the House to reclaim majorities. The results will also influence the trajectory of Trump’s final two years in office, including his ability to push through judicial and executive branch nominees.