Early Vote Data Shows Democratic Surge, but GOP Pushes Late Turnout

Key points

• Over 18 million early votes have been cast, with Democrats comprising a larger share than in 2024 in most states except Alaska and Michigan.
• In Georgia and Iowa, the early vote is approximately 18 percentage points more Democratic than in the 2024 cycle.
• Polls show 72% of Democratic voters are certain to vote compared to 65% of Republicans, indicating a higher enthusiasm gap.
• Republicans are expected to perform better on Election Day, as seen in previous cycles where they won in-person and Election Day votes by margins of 14 and 16 points respectively.
• President Trump is campaigning in Iowa to mobilize GOP voters, while Democrats are leveraging high enthusiasm in states like Michigan and Georgia.

Background

This development follows earlier reports from October 19 and 22, 2026, which noted a Democratic surge in early voting in key battlegrounds. Prior analysis indicated that while Democrats had a lead in early ballots, Republicans often closed the gap on Election Day. Additionally, Trump’s approval rating has hit record lows, contributing to the enthusiasm gap between the parties.

How outlets are covering it

ABC News emphasizes the Democratic advantage in early voting as a sign of high enthusiasm, using data from L2 and the Election Lab. AP News highlights the overall surge in early voting, noting that turnout in Senate-deciding states is soaring compared to 2022, and focuses on Trump’s efforts to boost GOP turnout in Iowa. Yahoo News provides a broader context, including legal challenges to voter eligibility and the Trump administration’s stance on voter ID, while also noting the Democratic enthusiasm in states like Maine and Michigan. Axios, while not providing specific data in the excerpt, likely tracks similar trends in early voting surges. The outlets agree on the Democratic lead in early voting but differ in emphasis: ABC focuses on the enthusiasm gap, AP on the total volume and Trump’s campaign, and Yahoo on the legal and political ramifications.

Why it matters

The early vote data provides a snapshot of voter enthusiasm but does not determine the final outcome. The ability of Republicans to mobilize late voters, particularly on Election Day, will be crucial in determining control of the Senate and House. The enthusiasm gap could influence the overall turnout and the competitiveness of key races.

What to watch

The focus will shift to Election Day turnout, particularly in states like Georgia and Michigan, where the early vote is heavily Democratic. Republicans will likely intensify efforts to mobilize low-propensity voters. The outcome of the midterms will depend on whether the Democratic enthusiasm translates into a final victory or if the Republican base can close the gap on Election Day.