Enten Predicts Democrat Jackson Will Win Maine Senate Race Amid Trump's Record-Low Approval

Key points

• CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten stated he would 'rather be Troy Jackson at this point than Susan Collins' in the Maine Senate race, predicting a Democratic victory.
• Enten attributes his prediction to President Trump's 'laughably bad' approval rating, which he previously measured at 38 points underwater in a Pew poll, a historic low for a midterm cycle.
• A Marist University poll from last week shows the race is tight, with 49% of likely voters supporting Jackson and 47% backing Collins, a margin of just two points.
• Enten noted that Senator Collins, who has served for 30 years, has a history of defying negative polling, creating uncertainty despite the national trend.
• The race has become the most expensive per capita in the country, with over $200 million spent, largely on negative advertising from various political interests.
• Troy Jackson, a former logger and state legislator, was drafted as the Democratic nominee in late July after progressive candidate Graham Platner withdrew due to scandal.

Background

This race is part of a broader midterm cycle where CNN analyst Harry Enten has warned of a potential Democratic 'blowout' in the House, citing a 10-point generic ballot lead and Trump's record-low approval ratings. Enten has previously highlighted that Trump's approval among independents is 50 points underwater, worse than Richard Nixon's in 1974. The Maine race is seen as a critical test of whether national anti-Trump sentiment can overcome a long-serving incumbent's local influence.

How outlets are covering it

The Daily Beast focuses on Enten's prediction and the impact of Trump's low approval ratings, framing the race as a direct result of national dissatisfaction. Maine Public provides a more nuanced view, highlighting the divergent strategies of the candidates: Collins' focus on local benefits and federal funding versus Jackson's nationalization of the race by framing Collins as an enabler of Trump. Maine Public also notes the high cost of the race and the involvement of major donors, including Elon Musk, while The Daily Beast emphasizes the polling data and Enten's analysis. Both sources agree on the tight margin but differ in their emphasis on local versus national factors.

Why it matters

The outcome of the Maine Senate race could shift the balance of power in Congress and influence President Trump's final two years in office. As the only Republican in New England, Collins' defeat would mark a significant loss for the GOP in a region that has historically leaned Democratic. The race also serves as a bellwether for the broader midterm elections, reflecting national sentiment toward the president's policies and approval ratings.

What to watch

Maine voters will decide the outcome on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The race is expected to be closely watched as an indicator of national trends, with both parties viewing it as a must-win. Post-election analysis will likely focus on the effectiveness of each candidate's strategy and the impact of national polling on local races.