LA Mayoral Race Ties at 40% as Bass Gains Conservative Support
A new poll shows the Los Angeles mayoral race is a dead heat, with incumbent Karen Bass and challenger Nithya Raman tied at 40% support. Bass has closed a previous double-digit gap by gaining support from conservative voters and older Latinos, while Raman faces internal party disputes over Israel policy.
Key points
- The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, shows Bass and Raman tied at 40% among likely voters, with 19% undecided.
- Bass’s surge is attributed to conservative voters who supported Spencer Pratt in the primary, with 41% now backing Bass compared to 14% for Raman.
- Bass’s favorability remains low at 65% unfavorable, but her support among Black voters has solidified to 71%, and she now leads in the San Fernando Valley.
- Raman’s support among Latino voters has dropped from a 24-point lead to a 3-point lead, with 43% supporting her versus 40% for Bass.
- The Democratic Socialists of America is fractured over Raman’s stance on the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement, with national leaders debating whether to revoke the local chapter's endorsement.
Background
The race for Los Angeles mayor has been closely watched since the June primary, where Bass won 34% and Raman placed second with 29%. Bass’s approval ratings have been low since the January 2025 wildfires, and she has faced significant opposition from progressive voters. The runoff election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
How outlets are covering it
The Los Angeles Times and NBC Los Angeles emphasize Bass’s comeback, attributing it to conservative voters and older Latinos. Raman’s campaign points to Bass’s high disapproval rating and her lead among Latino voters. LA Public Press highlights policy differences, noting Bass’s focus on police funding and Raman’s push for tenant protections and ICE audits. Axios focuses on the internal DSA conflict, noting that national leaders are debating whether to disown Raman over her Israel stance, while the local chapter maintains its endorsement.
Why it matters
The outcome of this race will shape the direction of Los Angeles, the second-largest city in the US, on issues like homelessness, housing affordability, and public safety. The race also highlights the growing influence of progressive politics and the challenges faced by incumbents in a polarized political landscape.
What to watch
The November 3 election will determine the next mayor of Los Angeles. The DSA is scheduled to meet with Raman on October 31 to assess her stance on Israel before any final disciplinary action. Both campaigns are expected to continue their final push for undecided voters in the days leading up to the election.
- Karen Bass, Nithya Raman in dead heat in race for LA mayor, poll says NBC Los Angeles
- Bass comes from behind, now in dead heat with Raman in mayor’s race, new poll shows Los Angeles Times
- You asked about ICE, LADWP bills, LAPD and rent. Here’s where LA mayoral candidates Bass and Raman stand LA Public Press
- Nithya Raman Is Not L.A.’s Mamdani. But She Might Become Mayor, Too. The New York Times
- Socialist civil war engulfs Los Angeles mayor race Axios
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Read on NBC Los Angeles