Maine Senate Race Ties at 49% as Trump Disapproval Weighs on Collins

Key points

• Fox News poll shows Collins and Jackson tied at 49% among likely voters.
• 53% of Maine voters are concerned Collins votes with Trump too often, while 46% worry Jackson is too liberal.
• Jackson leads by 23 points among college-educated voters and by 18 points in suburban areas.
• Collins leads by 16 points among voters without a college degree and by 7 points in rural areas.
• Trump's job approval in Maine is 37%, with 62% disapproving, including 54% who strongly disapprove.

Background

The race has been tight throughout the 2026 cycle, with polls showing leads shifting between both candidates. Earlier surveys indicated Jackson held a narrow advantage, while other polls showed Collins edging ahead. Recent debates and campaign visits by figures like Joe Manchin and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have highlighted the strategic divide between Collins's centrist approach and Jackson's progressive base.

How outlets are covering it

Fox News emphasizes the tight horse race and the impact of Trump's low approval ratings on Collins. The Washington Post highlights the potential loss of federal funding power if Jackson wins, noting Collins's role as Appropriations chair. Vox questions whether Collins's political luck can continue in a state that has grown more blue. NBC News analyzes Collins's ability to transcend Trump through her personal brand and record of securing federal funds for Maine.

Why it matters

The Maine Senate race is critical for Senate control, with Democrats viewing it as a must-win seat. The outcome will determine whether Republicans retain their majority in the Senate, impacting legislative priorities and federal funding for Maine.

What to watch

The race will conclude with the November 2026 midterm elections. Early voting results and Election Day turnout will determine the final outcome. Both candidates are expected to continue campaigning in the final weeks, focusing on their respective strengths and weaknesses.