Michigan Likely Voters Favor Democrats by Double Digits in Final Poll
A New York Times/Siena poll of 1,011 likely Michigan voters shows Democrats holding double-digit leads in the U.S. Senate, governor, and congressional races. Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers by 11 points, while Jocelyn Benson leads John James by 12. President Trump retains a 26-point disapproval gap among likely voters.
Key points
- Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers in the U.S. Senate race by 11 points (53% to 42%) among likely voters.
- Jocelyn Benson leads John James in the governor’s race by 12 points (52% to 39%).
- The generic congressional ballot favors Democrats by 11 points (51% to 40%).
- President Trump’s job approval stands at 34% (22% strongly, 12% somewhat) versus 60% disapproval (54% strongly, 6% somewhat).
- El-Sayed holds a 10-point favorability advantage over Rogers (50% favorable vs. 38% favorable).
Background
This poll is part of a broader national survey by The New York Times and Siena Research Institute covering seven battleground states, including Michigan, Iowa, and Texas. Earlier coverage noted similar Democratic gains in other states, such as Minnesota and South Carolina, while Republicans maintained leads in Florida. The Michigan results align with a trend of Democratic strength in key swing states during the 2026 midterm cycle.
Why it matters
Michigan is a critical swing state in the 2026 midterms. A double-digit Democratic lead in all major races suggests a strong chance of Democratic gains in the U.S. Senate and governor’s office, potentially impacting national legislative control. Trump’s low approval rating may also influence voter turnout and candidate viability in other states.
What to watch
Election Day is November 3, 2026. Final results will determine whether the poll’s leads translate into actual victories. Campaigns for El-Sayed, Rogers, Benson, and James will likely focus on late-voter mobilization and turnout in the final days.
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