Paxton Scraps Alamo Finale Amid Texas Turnout Crisis

Key points

• Paxton’s campaign replaced its planned Monday night finale at the Alamo with events in Conroe and Allen, located roughly 300 miles away. The Alamo Trust prohibits political advocacy on its grounds, and the campaign did not respond to queries regarding the change.
• A record 7.4 million Texans voted early, with Democrats leading in urban counties and Republicans in rural areas. Analysts note that independents, who outpaced both parties in early voting, are critical to the outcome, with 54 percent needed to vote Republican for the GOP to break even.
• Paxton faces a tight race against Democrat James Talarico, who leads in fundraising and some polls. Paxton’s campaign has been hampered by past allegations of misconduct and low attendance at recent rallies, including a sparsely populated event in Abilene.
• Talarico criticized the cancellations, stating that Paxton is 'hiding behind a pile of money' from Elon Musk, who has poured over $200 million into the race. Talarico’s own tour, dubbed 'Clear Eyes, Full Hearts,' has focused on economic concerns and voter outreach.
• Gov. Greg Abbott and Paxton held separate segments at a Wichita Falls rally, signaling a cautious approach as both face tight re-election odds. Abbott did not mention Paxton during his speech, despite Paxton thanking him for hosting the event.

Background

This development follows earlier reports of Paxton’s campaign struggling with low attendance and logistical failures in its final-week tour. Previous coverage highlighted the importance of Black voter turnout and rural mobilization in the tight Texas Senate race, which could determine control of the U.S. Senate. Paxton’s reliance on Trump’s backing and Musk’s financial support has been a key strategy, but his campaign has faced scrutiny over canceled stops and declining enthusiasm among Republican voters.

How outlets are covering it

The Washington Post and The Texas Tribune emphasize the logistical changes and the Alamo Trust’s rules as factors in the cancellation, while The Daily Beast highlights the low attendance at recent rallies and Talarico’s criticism of Paxton’s reliance on Musk’s funding. The New York Times focuses on the split between Abbott and Paxton, suggesting a cautious approach by the governor. Analysts cited by The Washington Post stress the importance of independent voters, noting that their behavior is unpredictable and could tip the balance in the race. Talarico’s campaign frames the cancellations as evidence of Paxton’s inability to mobilize voters, while Paxton’s supporters emphasize rural turnout and Trump’s backing as key factors in the race.

Why it matters

The cancellation of the Alamo finale and the broader turnout dynamics in Texas could determine the outcome of the U.S. Senate race, which is critical for control of the Senate. The reliance on independent voters and the financial backing from Elon Musk highlight the high stakes and the challenges facing both candidates in a competitive and polarized race.

What to watch

Voting ends on Tuesday, with the outcome of the Texas Senate race likely to hinge on independent voter turnout and the effectiveness of both candidates’ final-week campaigns. The Alamo Trust’s rules and the campaign’s logistical challenges may continue to shape the narrative around Paxton’s ability to mobilize voters in the final days before the election.