Paxton Scraps Alamo Finale, Pivots to Suburban Stops Amid Turnout Crisis

Key points

• Paxton’s campaign removed the Alamo from its 'Come and Take It' tour schedule, substituting events in Conroe and Allen, which are hundreds of miles from San Antonio.
• The Alamo Trust confirmed that its rules prohibit political advocacy or fundraising on the grounds, and it was unaware of any prior arrangements for Paxton.
• Early voting data indicates a Democratic lead in urban counties, with 7.4 million Texans voting early, forcing Republicans to rely heavily on independent voters to win.
• Paxton’s campaign has faced multiple cancellations in El Paso, Tyler, and Texarkana, prompting Talarico to label it a 'crashout' and criticize Paxton’s reliance on over $200 million in funding from Elon Musk.
• Gov. Greg Abbott and Paxton held separate segments at a Wichita Falls rally, with Abbott not mentioning Paxton during his speech, signaling a cautious approach in tight races.

Background

This development occurs as the Texas Senate race tightens, with polls showing Democrat James Talarico holding a slight lead. The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, but recent early voting trends suggest a shift in voter behavior. Paxton’s campaign has been hampered by past allegations of criminal misconduct and personal indiscretion, including an impeachment in the state House over alleged bribery, though he was acquitted in the state Senate. The Alamo, a World Heritage Site and museum, has historically been a symbol of Texas resistance, but its rules of reverence prohibit political activities.

How outlets are covering it

CBS News and The Washington Post both reported that Paxton’s campaign did not comment on the change of plans, with The Post noting that the campaign was guarded about details. The Texas Tribune emphasized the logistical impossibility of Paxton traveling from Allen to San Antonio in time for the Alamo event, while CBS highlighted the Alamo Trust’s prohibition on political activities. The New York Times focused on the lack of joint appearances between Abbott and Paxton, suggesting a cautious approach in tight races. All sources agreed that the race is competitive, with Talarico leading in polls and fundraising, but differing on the extent of Paxton’s campaign struggles, with The Tribune highlighting multiple cancellations and CBS focusing on the Alamo Trust’s rules.

Why it matters

The cancellation of the Alamo finale signals a shift in Paxton’s strategy, moving away from symbolic, high-profile events to more practical, suburban stops. This reflects the broader challenge Republicans face in Texas, where early voting data shows a Democratic advantage in urban areas, forcing them to rely on independent voters. The race is critical for control of the U.S. Senate, and any misstep in the final days could tip the balance. Paxton’s reliance on Musk’s funding and the lack of joint appearances with Abbott suggest a campaign under pressure, with Talarico leveraging these issues to frame Paxton as a candidate who 'hides behind money' rather than engaging with voters.

What to watch

Paxton will hold events in Conroe and Allen on Monday, with the Allen event starting at 6:30 p.m. CT. The race will conclude on November 3, with early voting data suggesting a Democratic lead in urban counties. Analysts predict that independents will be decisive, with 54% needing to vote Republican for the GOP to break even. Talarico’s 'Clear Eyes, Full Hearts' tour will continue, while Paxton’s campaign will likely focus on suburban and rural areas to counter the Democratic turnout advantage.