Record San Juan River crest threatens Pagosa Springs as Southwest faces second major flood wave

Key points

• The San Juan River in Pagosa Springs is forecast to crest at 22 feet, exceeding the 17.8-foot record from the 1911 flood that destroyed much of the town.
• Mandatory evacuations were issued for Sedona, Gisela, Camp Verde, and multiple mobile home parks in La Plata County, including Junction Creek and Meadowbrook.
• Interstate 17 reopened in both directions, but State Routes 89A, 73, and 238 remained closed between Phoenix and Flagstaff due to flooding and rockfalls.
• La Plata County closed all public roads and canceled classes at Durango School District and Fort Lewis College for Monday.
• The National Weather Service issued flood warnings for nearly all of Arizona and parts of the Four Corners region, with up to 4 inches of rain expected through Monday.

Background

This event follows a series of severe weather impacts in the Southwest, including record coastal flooding in the Southeast and heavy rainfall from Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel remnants in October. Earlier in November, the National Weather Service issued flood watches across the region due to saturated ground conditions, which have now led to the current wave of flash and river flooding.

How outlets are covering it

AP News emphasized the historic nature of the Pagosa Springs flood and the emotional toll on residents, while the Durango Herald detailed the logistical challenges in La Plata County, including road closures and power outages affecting hundreds of customers. AZ Family provided a comprehensive list of evacuation orders and shelter locations across Arizona, highlighting the widespread impact on tribal lands and rural communities. KTAR News focused on traffic disruptions, noting that while Interstate 17 reopened, other highways remained closed with no estimated reopening time. All sources agreed on the severity of the rainfall and the urgency of evacuation orders, but differed in their focus on local impacts versus regional logistics.

Why it matters

The flooding highlights the increasing vulnerability of arid regions to extreme rainfall events, with saturated ground amplifying the impact of new storms. The record-breaking river levels in Pagosa Springs and the widespread evacuations across Arizona underscore the need for improved infrastructure and emergency response capabilities in the Southwest. The event also demonstrates the cascading effects of weather systems, where Pacific storms can trigger severe flooding in distant, normally dry areas.

What to watch

Officials expect the San Juan River to reach its peak crest late Sunday night, with potential for significant damage in Pagosa Springs. The National Weather Service forecasts additional rain through Monday, with up to 2 inches expected in higher elevations of Archuleta County. Emergency crews will continue to monitor water levels and clear debris from roads, while residents are urged to stay home and avoid flooded areas. The situation in La Plata County may improve as the rain subsides, but the risk of further flooding remains high due to saturated ground.