Polls Miss Mark as Wisconsin, Michigan Primaries Defy Expectations
TL;DR Summary
Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race defied polls, with Francesca Hong losing by less than 1 point after forecasts of a wide win; Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed won the Senate primary by 1 point despite double-digit polling leads; Minnesota’s Peggy Flanagan won the U.S. Senate primary by about 20 points. The episodes illustrate spectacular polling and prediction-market misses amid a progressive surge in Democratic politics and open-primary dynamics.
- Wisconsin, Michigan primaries expose limits of polls and prediction markets CNBC
- What a safe-bet candidate’s loss means for Democrats’ odds in November CNN
- Why the Wisconsin primary results didn’t match the polls NBC News
- Pollsters missed again in Wisconsin. Here's why. Axios
- Questions rise over primary polls following Michigan, Wisconsin upsets The Hill
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