Tag

Prediction Markets

All articles tagged with #prediction markets

finance1 day ago•3 min saved

Goldman Sachs tightens employee bets in prediction markets

Goldman Sachs has instructed employees to limit their prediction-market bets to sports and entertainment due to compliance risks tied to material non-public information, with breaches potentially costing a job. The internal memo underscores banks' regulatory concern as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket expand into financial bets on events such as elections and rates, drawing scrutiny over profits from advance knowledge; Kalshi is even exploring a multibillion-dollar funding round.

via Financial Times|

#compliance #finance #goldman-sachs

business1 day ago•7 min saved

Firms tighten reins as insider trading fears mount on prediction markets

Insider-trading risk is rising on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, with Goldman Sachs banning certain event-related trades and a Google case highlighting enforcement risks. Few companies already have explicit policies; many are still developing guidance, while experts urge proactive training, monitoring, and clearer rules—especially as exchanges expand oversight and regulators explore liability for corporate employees.

via CNBC|

#business #corporate-policy #goldman-sachs

business3 days ago•19 min saved

Polymarket bets on a trust-first US comeback with tighter oversight

Polymarket is launching a US re-entry backed by a high-profile compliance push, including former DOJ/FBI officials and Coinbase alumni, and via the QCEX acquisition to operate under CFTC rules. The USD-based platform will be more tightly regulated and smaller in scope than its international counterpart, as executives emphasize “trust is the product.” The effort faces scrutiny over past offshore marketing practices and faces competition from Kalshi as US market volumes rise.

via Yahoo Finance|

#business #compliance #kalshi

business6 days ago•3 min saved

World Cup Ignites Record Volumes in Prediction Markets

The 2026 FIFA World Cup sparked a dramatic surge in prediction-market activity in June, with Kalshi posting over $31 billion in notional volume and Polymarket surpassing $10.8 billion on its international exchange, while the new platform Rothera traded about $2 billion. U.S. platforms saw substantial volumes (Kalshi >$3.5B, Polymarket >$3.5B) and rising open interest (Kalshi >$1B, Polymarket ~$.4B), underscoring the World Cup as a major test for market integrity and regulatory scrutiny as platforms prepare for continued high-volume periods.

via CNBC|

#business #kalshi #polymarket

technology7 days ago•2 min saved

Prediction-market bets spur fake streams: Spotify wipes 500k plays from Earrings

Spotify removed 500,000 streams from Malcolm Todd’s hit Earrings after an internal probe found artificial listening tied to bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket; the artist isn’t believed to be involved, and Spotify says it detects and mitigates manipulated streams and doesn’t pay related royalties. The manipulation followed a spike in the chart driven by prediction-market activity (Kalshi had given Todd a 2.5% chance to top the chart), and there are ongoing reviews by Kalshi and Polymarket, with Spotify asking them to remove Spotify logos to avoid implying a partnership.

via Mashable|

#kalshi #polymarket #prediction-markets

business7 days ago•2 min saved

Massive Polymarket Bet on Putin's Exit Fuels Insider-Trade Doubts

A Polymarket bettor placed roughly $409,000 on Vladimir Putin leaving office by December 31, 2026, with about an 11% implied probability, reviving scrutiny of insider trading on prediction markets after prior scandals. While the bet is notable, there’s no evidence of an imminent ouster and Putin remains in power amid ongoing Ukraine conflict, making the outcome uncertain despite market activity.

via Futurism|

#business #insider-trading #polymarket

technology8 days ago•6 min saved

Spotify Finds Fake Streams, Forcing Market Updates and a Trader’s Exit

Spotify confirmed artificial streaming after a Kalshi trader flagged botting in Spotify-related markets; the company culled over 500,000 fake streams and adjusted its charts, moving Malcolm Todd’s song from #1 to #4. Kalshi then removed Spotify branding from related markets and said it’s coordinating with Spotify and Polymarket as investigations continue; Polymarket says it has not identified any immediate manipulation. The episode underscores vulnerabilities in chart-based prediction markets, prompting trader Caleb Davies to swear off such markets for now.

via WIRED|

#kalshi #polymarket #prediction-markets

business13 days ago•2 min saved

CFTC Broadens Polymarket Probe, Testing Regulatory Resolve

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has opened a broad investigation into Polymarket, a Trump Jr.-connected prediction-market platform, signaling a renewed push to enforce U.S. law on crypto-linked markets. This probe marks a test of the regulator’s willingness to hold high-profile players accountable, following last year’s decision to halt a separate enforcement inquiry over whether Polymarket served U.S. customers; the current investigation began earlier this year and appears extensive in scope.

via The New York Times|

#business #cftc #donald-trump-jr

business14 days ago•6 min saved

CFTC widens probe into Polymarket amid rising scrutiny of prediction markets

U.S. regulators at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are conducting an extensive investigation into Polymarket, a leading prediction-market platform, as Washington grows concerned about insider trading risks and marketing practices tied to bets on U.S. elections, the Iran war and other events; the probe follows previous enforcement actions and ongoing scrutiny of the company’s ties to political figures, with Polymarket declining to comment while noting it is auditing promotional content.

via Politico|

#business #cftc #investigation

entertainment14 days ago•183 min saved

Markets ignite as Swift-Kelce wedding bets flood prediction platforms

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are buzzing with bets on the Taylor Swift–Travis Kelce wedding, including when and where it might happen, who’s in the wedding party, guest lists, and even whether the couple will attend a World Cup match, with Kalshi as CNN’s official market partner and public awareness of the engagement running high.

via CNN|

#entertainment #prediction-markets #taylor-swift

technology16 days ago•16 min saved

Meta Bets on Human Habits Again with Arena Prediction Market

Gizmodo reports Meta is developing Arena, a cross‑app prediction‑markets platform for Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp to bet on almost anything, viewed as a knockoff of Kalshi/Polymarket and a continuation of betting on people’s worst impulses for profit. The piece ties this to Meta’s history—from the Facemash era and a notorious quote about users’ “trust” to harnessing dopamine‑driven engagement and whistleblower claims about addictive design and mental health harm—arguing Arena would extend that business model into gambling, with concerns about addiction and vulnerability, including minors.

via Gizmodo|

#engagement-algorithms #facebook #mark-zuckerberg

technology17 days ago•2 min saved

Meta eyes a point-based prediction market app named Arena

Meta is reportedly developing a prediction markets app called Arena that would use a video-game–style points system instead of real money and would leverage Facebook/Instagram users to recruit traders; CNBC-confirmed plans follow The New York Times’ report, and DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment shares fell after the news, with Robinhood also slipping as Meta declined to comment.

via CNBC|

#arena #draftkings #mark-zuckerberg

business17 days ago•13 min saved

Polymarket Accused of Faking High-Win Promo Videos

A Wall Street Journal investigation cited by Kotaku alleges Polymarket paid creators to produce fake videos of six-figure winnings on bets, then amplified them via a social-media push. In total, more than 1,100 faked videos were reviewed, with fake winnings totaling about $900,000, while real bets on those outcomes would have resulted in losses. Polymarket says it is conducting a comprehensive audit of promotional content.

via Kotaku|

#business #fake-videos #gambling

business18 days ago•6 min saved

Polymarket's viral wins were staged, investigation finds

A Wall Street Journal investigation found Polymarket paid social-media creators to film fake bets on cloned dummy sites as part of a promotional push, identifying 145 fake bets totaling about $1.9 million and 118 videos reacting to outdated footage that would have yielded losses; the campaign generated hundreds of millions of views, with creators instructed to avoid disclosing paid promotion. Polymarket’s US platform has been blocked since 2022, and the company says it’s conducting a comprehensive audit of promotional content and pursuing a limited US offering via a CFTC-regulated app.

via Ars Technica|

#business #digital-marketing #fake-bets

politics19 days ago•11 min saved

Poll finds public wary as political betting markets surge

A POLITICO-Public First poll shows 44% of U.S. adults believe betting on election outcomes should be illegal, signaling public discomfort with the rapid growth of political prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Proponents say these markets provide real-time information and hedging tools, while critics warn that wealthy bets could threaten democracy; about $700 million has already traded on 2028 election markets, and younger adults show more interest, even as regulators and lawmakers scrutinize the industry.

via Politico|

#election-betting #kalshi #politics