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Prediction Markets

All articles tagged with #prediction markets

Prediction Markets Skeptical Bessent’s Moves Will Lower Treasuries’ Yields
markets22 hours ago

Prediction Markets Skeptical Bessent’s Moves Will Lower Treasuries’ Yields

Prediction-market traders on Kalshi and Polymarket expect the 10-year Treasury yield to stay around current levels or rise in 2026 rather than fall significantly, despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s efforts. Kalshi traders assign a 56% chance the 10-year ends 2026 at or above 4.75%, with just a 27% chance above 5%; Polymarket traders put two-in-three odds on the yield crossing 4.8% at some point in 2026. With the yield near 4.7% mid-day and debt surpassing $40 trillion, along with buyback tweaks and potential use of the General Account, traders see any declines as likely temporary.

via CNBC|
#bessent#kalshi#markets
Habba rules herself out as Leavitt’s successor, reshaping the White House press secretary race
politics5 days ago

Habba rules herself out as Leavitt’s successor, reshaping the White House press secretary race

Alina Habba publicly dismissed speculation that she’s pursuing Karoline Leavitt’s White House press secretary post, which has shifted bettors’ attention to other contenders like Scott Jennings, Anna Kelly, and Natalie Harp as Leavitt prepares to depart to spend time with family. The job remains the administration’s chief spokesperson and a high‑visibility role in messaging the White House.

via USA Today|
#alina-habba#karoline-leavitt#politics
Markets bet Anthropic could snag 2026's largest IPO, eclipsing SpaceX
ipos6 days ago

Markets bet Anthropic could snag 2026's largest IPO, eclipsing SpaceX

Prediction-market data suggests Anthropic could outpace SpaceX to lead 2026's biggest IPO, aided by Bloomberg's forecast of about $65 billion in Anthropic's annualized revenue for 2026; SpaceX has already priced its IPO and reached a multi-trillion-dollar valuation on debut, keeping the crown for now while Anthropic remains private and valued around $1 trillion in private markets.

via Yahoo Finance|
#anthropic#ipo#ipos
business7 days ago

Markets price a 3-in-4 chance PSKY closes WBD deal by 2027 amid lawsuit

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket assign roughly a 74% chance Paramount Skydance will acquire Warner Bros. Discovery by July 2027, down from above 80% before a states’ lawsuit and below the ~66% level after Paramount delayed the deal. Polymarket shows about a 23% chance no deal by June 2027. A federal trial is set for March 2027, with potential extension to June 2027 if regulatory hurdles remain. If the deal isn’t closed by Sept. 30, Paramount owes Warner Bros. shareholders 25 cents per share per quarter until closing. Unions urged faster resolution, and CNBC notes a disclosed relationship with Kalshi.

via CNBC|
#business#kalshi#paramount-skydance
WA Judge Finds Kalshi’s Prediction Markets Illegal, Orders Bets Shut Down
law10 days ago

WA Judge Finds Kalshi’s Prediction Markets Illegal, Orders Bets Shut Down

A King County, Washington, judge ruled Kalshi’s online “prediction markets” for sports and other topics violate state gambling laws, issuing a final injunction that blocks most WA bets and requires Kalshi to implement a geofence by Sept. 2, 2026, with potential $120,000 daily penalties for noncompliance. Kalshi disputes the decision, arguing federal jurisdiction lies with the CFTC, and the ruling fits into a broader, multi-state legal fight over whether prediction markets are legal. Commodities and some finance-related bets remain exempt from the order.

via Gizmodo|
#geofence#illegal-gambling#kalshi
Baltimore Sues Kalshi and Polymarket Over Unlicensed Sports Prediction Markets
business12 days ago

Baltimore Sues Kalshi and Polymarket Over Unlicensed Sports Prediction Markets

Baltimore filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and Polymarket accusing them of offering sports bets without a license, arguing they compete with regulated sportsbooks while evading oversight, taxation, and responsible-gambling rules. The case reflects a broader national fight over whether prediction markets fall under federal regulation, a battle unlikely to be resolved until the Supreme Court weighs in, even as sportsbooks increasingly explore prediction-market offerings.

via NBC Sports|
#baltimore#business#kalshi
Polls Miss Mark as Wisconsin, Michigan Primaries Defy Expectations
politics12 days ago

Polls Miss Mark as Wisconsin, Michigan Primaries Defy Expectations

Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race defied polls, with Francesca Hong losing by less than 1 point after forecasts of a wide win; Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed won the Senate primary by 1 point despite double-digit polling leads; Minnesota’s Peggy Flanagan won the U.S. Senate primary by about 20 points. The episodes illustrate spectacular polling and prediction-market misses amid a progressive surge in Democratic politics and open-primary dynamics.

via CNBC|
#michigan#politics#polling
NYC Council Probes Marketing Tactics of Prediction Markets
business13 days ago

NYC Council Probes Marketing Tactics of Prediction Markets

New York City’s Council is examining the marketing practices of prediction market platforms, focusing on Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini Titan, and Coinbase, amid allegations of potentially deceptive advertising. The probe, announced by Council Speaker Julie Menin’s office, aims to determine if tighter rules are needed and will include a forthcoming hearing, though it is not focused on whether the platforms violate state gambling laws. The inquiry follows reporting by The Wall Street Journal about Polymarket’s marketing, which spurred a CFTC investigation; Polymarket has since updated its guidelines, while state litigation in New York targets Kalshi, Coinbase, and Gemini for alleged illegal gambling operations. Coinbase says its markets are federally regulated, and Kalshi and Gemini have not immediately commented.

via CNBC|
#business#kalshi#marketing-practices
Prediction markets peg July CPI as likely cooler than forecast
economy14 days ago

Prediction markets peg July CPI as likely cooler than forecast

Prediction markets on Kalshi imply July's CPI may come in cooler than the Dow Jones consensus, with under 55% odds of year-over-year CPI above 3.3% and just 15% above 3.4%. For core inflation, Kalshi traders put a 47% chance of more than 2.4% and 11% for more than 2.5%, while economists expect 3%? 2.5% YoY core inflation for July (down from June's 2.6%). The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI on Wednesday, a key data point for Fed rate decisions. CNBC notes the relationship and disclosure of Kalshi/CNBC collaboration.

via CNBC|
#core-inflation#cpi#economy
New York Regulators Target Kalshi, Sparking Debate Over Prediction Markets and Polymarket
business17 days ago

New York Regulators Target Kalshi, Sparking Debate Over Prediction Markets and Polymarket

New York Attorney General Letitia James and Governor Kathy Hochul sued Kalshi, alleging its event-based futures are illegal gambling that require state licensing, and seeking licensing plus billions in alleged ill-gotten gains. Kalshi counters it is a federally regulated commodities exchange, not a gambling operator, and questions why Polymarket isn’t named while noting broader federal-state tensions over prediction markets and related platforms like Coinbase and Gemini.

via New York Post|
#business#kalshi#kathy-hochul
Biotech Prediction Bets on Trials Prompt Ethical Backlash
technology18 days ago

Biotech Prediction Bets on Trials Prompt Ethical Backlash

Kalshi’s plan to let users bet on the outcomes of clinical trials has drawn sharp ethical objections from researchers and patients who warn such markets could undermine trial integrity and patient welfare, even as Kalshi argues bets would reflect updated evidence and cut through hype. The controversy highlights broader concerns about gamifying lifesaving research and treating trials as speculative bets, rather than purely scientific endeavors.

via Futurism|
#biotech#clinical-trials#drug-development
Lawmakers urge CFTC to rein in wildfire betting markets
politics19 days ago

Lawmakers urge CFTC to rein in wildfire betting markets

A group of U.S. senators asks the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to crack down on prediction markets that let people bet on wildfires, warning such markets could incentivize arson and threaten public safety; Kalshi says it avoids wildfire markets, while Polymarket has faced scrutiny; experts say these markets risk monetizing disasters amid ongoing wildfires in the Pacific Northwest.

via Ars Technica|
#arson-risk#cftc#politics
Utah Wins Round Against Kalshi, Signals Tightened Rules for Prediction Markets
law19 days ago

Utah Wins Round Against Kalshi, Signals Tightened Rules for Prediction Markets

U.S. District Judge Robert Shelby ruled Utah can enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi’s prediction markets, denying Kalshi’s bid for federal preemption. The decision does not order an immediate shutdown in Utah, but Attorney General Derek Brown says enforcement will proceed and Kalshi has appealed to the 10th Circuit. With Utah’s HB243 backing broader state regulation and similar legal battles ongoing in multiple states, Kalshi’s future in Utah remains uncertain and will hinge on appellate outcomes and potential federal action.

via The Salt Lake Tribune|
#gambling-laws#hb243#kalshi