All articles tagged with #prediction markets
A federal judge granted the CFTC's request for a temporary restraining order, pausing Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi over alleged illegal sports bets and reinforcing the federal regulator's authority to oversee prediction markets.
The White House circulated an internal memo warning federal employees that using nonpublic government information to place wagers on prediction markets (and related platforms) could constitute insider trading and violates federal ethics rules, a warning prompted by scrutiny of high-volume trades linked to the Iran war. The memo emphasizes that such misuse is a serious offense and will not be tolerated; officials noted there is no public evidence tying any White House staff to trades, but lawmakers have pressed for tighter regulation as the CFTC’s stance shifts and Congress considers additional bills.
The CFTC announced the formation of the Innovation Task Force to develop a clear regulatory framework for innovators in crypto assets and blockchain, artificial intelligence and autonomous systems, and prediction markets and event contracts. Led by Michael J. Passalacqua, the ITF includes senior agency staff and private-sector experts to establish rules of the road for American innovators.
The White House reportedly warned staff in a March 24 email not to place bets on Iran-related events on prediction markets amid concerns about insider trading and the use of nonpublic information. The alert followed a spike in big trades around Trump’s announcements—more than $500 million in crude oil futures in about 15 minutes before a pause in Iran hostilities, and a later large bet on oil prices ahead of a two-week ceasefire. Senators Warren and Whitehouse urged the CFTC to investigate possible misappropriation of government information, and Rep. Torres is seeking an SEC/CFTC probe. The White House says federal employees are barred from trading on nonpublic information, and market operators have tightened their rules.
The White House warned staff not to use non-public information to place bets on prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket, referencing federal ethics guidelines; the notice followed press reports about insider-informed betting around geopolitical events and adds fuel to the ongoing debate over market regulations and potential investigations.
White House staff were emailed on March 24 to avoid using nonpublic government information to place bets on online prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket, with officials warning that such activity is a criminal offense and a serious ethics violation; staff are advised to consult the White House Counsel’s Office if they have questions, a move that followed media coverage and White House statements emphasizing that trading on nonpublic information will not be tolerated.
An analysis of blockchain data shows about 50 newly created Polymarket wallets placed large yes bets ahead of a US–Iran ceasefire announcement, earning some traders hundreds of thousands of dollars even as the contract remained disputed; the pattern echoes earlier profitable bursts around political events and fuels ongoing debates about insider information and the need for regulation in prediction markets.
Newly created Polymarket wallets placed highly timed Yes bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire just hours before President Trump’s post signaling a two-week deal, with some accounts cashing out for hundreds of thousands of dollars even as the contract was labeled disputed and subject to ongoing regulatory debate over insider information in prediction markets.
New Polymarket accounts placed large bets on a US-Iran ceasefire in the hours ahead of Trump’s anticipated announcement, underscoring how fast-moving geopolitical news can drive activity on prediction markets.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour argues on Axios that sportsbooks are designed to push winners out and lure losers with promos, profiting from built-in margins, while prediction markets simply connect buyers and sellers with Kalshi taking a fee as facilitator; in effect, the house is the bettor in prediction markets. Regulation—potential state rules and a future Supreme Court decision—could determine how these markets are overseen.
U.S. prosecutors in New York met with Polymarket to discuss how existing insider-trading laws might apply to suspicious bets, though no accusations have been made. The piece notes notable bets and ongoing regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, including Polymarket’s US relaunch after a prior ban and Kalshi’s regulatory challenges, as markets grow in popularity and proponents push for stronger integrity rules.
Reuters identified four notably timed trades ahead of Trump’s announcements, prompting concerns about insider trading and the oversight of prediction markets. The White House reiterated that ethics rules bar federal officials from profiting on nonpublic information, while regulators like the CFTC and DOJ say they are monitoring such activity amid ongoing debates over platform rules for Polymarket and Kalshi. The highlighted trades include 2025 option bets before tariffs were paused, a January 2026 bet on Maduro’s ouster on Polymarket, bets linked to the Iran conflict in February, and a $500 million oil futures wager shortly before Trump delayed an energy attack. Experts warn that proving insider trading in commodities and prediction markets is complex, underscoring calls for clearer regulatory guidance.
A bipartisan group of senators introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Markets Act of 2026 to bar lawmakers, the president, congressional staff and other federal officials from trading on insider information through prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The bill would define insider information as nonpublic information that a reasonable investor would view as material to a prediction-market contract, signaling Washington’s intensified effort to curb potential conflicts of interest as these platforms gain prominence. The move follows other related proposals and ongoing scrutiny of prediction markets from lawmakers and regulators.
A bipartisan push in Congress would ban prediction markets on elections, sports, government actions, and military moves, with the STOP Corrupt Bets Act led by Sen. Merkley and a House version by Rep. Raskin. Competing bills seek to ban or restrict similar contracts, citing corruption and insider trading risks, while proponents argue regulation via the CFTC is sufficient. Industry players like Kalshi and Polymarket have signaled reforms or safety measures, and a Government Accountability Office study is being considered as part of the legislative package.
A group of Democratic lawmakers introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act to ban prediction-market bets on elections, government actions, war, and sports, arguing such bets threaten democracy and invite corruption; the bill would expand restrictions, push gambling regulation back to the states, require a GAO study on insider trading, and follows Kalshi and Polymarket strengthening insider-trading protections.