Polls show Trump approval at historic lows as midterms near

Key points

• Trump’s approval rating dropped to 36% in the Times/Siena poll and 32% in the CNN/SSRS poll, marking the lowest levels of his two terms.
• The Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll found 33% approval among adults, with 66% disapproving, a four-point drop since July.
• Democrats hold an eight-point lead in the House race among likely voters, a significant improvement from a three-point lead in July.
• Economic dissatisfaction is a primary driver, with 71% of Americans now saying gasoline is unaffordable, a reversal from February.
• The war with Iran has damaged Trump’s standing, with 65% of voters calling the military action a mistake.

Background

Recent archive articles from October 2026 indicated that Trump’s approval had already been declining, with earlier polls showing a 33% approval rating in September. The current data confirms a continued downward trajectory, with the latest surveys showing even lower numbers than previous months. The 2026 midterms have been characterized by a focus on economic issues and the impact of the Iran conflict, which have consistently dragged down Republican support.

How outlets are covering it

The New York Times and CNN polls emphasize the historic low of Trump’s approval ratings, with the Times noting a 36% approval among likely voters and CNN showing 32%. The Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll provides a broader context, highlighting the shift in party trust and the specific impact of the Iran war on gasoline prices. While all sources agree on the decline in approval, the Post poll offers more detail on the demographic shifts and the specific issues driving the dissatisfaction, such as the cost of living and the war in Iran.

Why it matters

The decline in Trump’s approval ratings has significant implications for the 2026 midterms, as it suggests a potential loss of control of Congress for the Republicans. The economic and foreign policy issues that are driving the dissatisfaction are likely to continue to shape the political landscape, with the war in Iran and the cost of living being key factors in voter sentiment. The shift in party trust and the specific demographic changes also suggest a broader realignment in the political landscape, which could have long-term implications for the Republican Party.

What to watch

The next few weeks will be critical for the Republicans, as they attempt to turn the tide in the final stretch of the midterms. The focus will likely be on economic issues and the impact of the Iran war, with the party attempting to mitigate the damage from these issues. The outcome of the midterms will depend on voter turnout and the specific dynamics of individual races, but the current polling suggests a difficult November for the GOP.