Texas Early Voting Hits Record 7.4 Million, Matching 2018 Midterm Peak

Key points

• Total early voting reached 7.4 million, or 38.9% of registered voters, including mail ballots.
• In-person turnout exceeded 2018 levels in Travis, Tarrant, Bexar, and Harris counties.
• Dallas County saw a slight dip in turnout compared to 2018, while Tarrant County saw the largest increase.
• The late surge in voting was concentrated in urban cores with diverse voter populations.
• Election Day polls open Tuesday from 7 am to 7 pm local time.

Background

This surge follows a national trend where early voting has surpassed 50 million ballots, with Democrats leading national polls by 8.2 points. Earlier this week, Texas turnout lagged behind 2018 figures, but a final push brought it to parity. The 2018 election is considered the modern high-water mark for midterm participation, where Democrat Beto O'Rourke narrowly lost to Republican Ted Cruz. Current polls show tight races for governor and Senate, with Democrats holding a slight edge in recent surveys.

How outlets are covering it

Axios emphasizes that high turnout does not inherently favor either party, noting that Dallas County turnout dipped slightly. The Texas Tribune highlights that the late surge likely reflects increased participation among Hispanic and Black voters in urban areas, which are traditionally competitive for Democrats. However, Democratic strategist Matt Angle cautioned that this does not mean Republicans will lose, as the electorate becomes more diverse on Election Day. Rice University professor Mark Jones noted that while turnout is high, it does not reach presidential election levels, and the final outcome remains uncertain due to outstanding mail ballots.

Why it matters

The 2026 Texas midterms are critical for national control, with races for governor and U.S. Senate closely watched. High early turnout indicates a highly engaged electorate, but the final outcome depends on Election Day participation in rural areas. The results will determine whether Democrats can break the Republican hold on Texas statewide offices, a feat last achieved in 2018 for the Senate race.

What to watch

Election Day is Tuesday, with polls open from 7 am to 7 pm local time. Mail ballots will continue to be counted after Election Day, potentially altering final results. Analysts will monitor rural turnout to determine if the urban early voting surge translates into a statewide Democratic victory or if Republicans can close the gap on Election Day.