Texas Polls Show Tight Senate Race, GOP Lead in Governor, and Broad Data Center Opposition

Key points

• The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, conducted Aug. 5-13, shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 42% to 39% in the U.S. Senate race, a shift from Paxton's slight lead in June.
• Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 45% to 40% in the governor's race, reversing a previous trend toward Democrats in other statewide contests.
• 57% of Texas voters oppose building data centers in their communities, a figure consistent with June polling. Democrats oppose at 75%, while Republicans are nearly split (45% support, 43% oppose).
• Talarico's campaign filed a petition in Collin County to unseal 2019 and 2022 depositions involving Paxton, alleging they raise ethical questions regarding his fitness for office.
• The depositions relate to a securities fraud dispute involving Unity Resources, where Paxton served as a board member and attorney. Paxton's team called the request a 'desperate attempt' to hide Talarico's extremism.

Background

Recent polls from Texas Southern University also showed the Senate race tight, with Talarico leading 47% to 45% among likely voters. Earlier coverage highlighted Talarico's strong support among Black voters (79%) and Hispanic voters, while Paxton maintains a lead among white voters. The race has been marked by disputes over Paxton's residency and past legal scandals, including a federal corruption probe and state impeachment proceedings.

How outlets are covering it

USA Today and The Texas Tribune emphasize the statistical tie in the Senate race and the unified opposition to data centers, noting that even rural and suburban voters largely oppose new construction. The Washington Post and AP News focus on the legal maneuvering, highlighting Talarico's strategy to use Paxton's past legal troubles to portray him as unfit for office. While USA Today notes the GOP lead in the governor's race, The Texas Tribune details the specific legal arguments used to unseal the depositions, contrasting with Paxton's campaign dismissal of the move as baseless.

Why it matters

The data center opposition signals a potential cross-partisan issue that could influence voter turnout and policy priorities in Texas. The tight Senate race and the legal battle over depositions indicate a highly contested election where past conduct and local infrastructure concerns are central to the narrative.

What to watch

The Collin County court will decide whether to unseal the depositions before the November election. Polling will continue to track the tight Senate race and the GOP lead in the governor's race. The outcome of the data center opposition may influence state legislation regarding energy infrastructure and zoning.