Trump's approval hits historic low of 37% as economic discontent fuels Democratic midterm momentum

Key points

• The Wall Street Journal poll, conducted Sept. 16-21, found 37% approval among 1,500 registered voters, a record low for a pre-midterm incumbent since 1990.
• 65% of respondents reported the economy is not strong, and 60% stated that presidential policies have worsened economic conditions.
• The 37% figure is comparable to George W. Bush's 39% approval in 2006, a period that resulted in Democrats gaining control of both the House and Senate.
• Polling averages from RealClearPolitics, The New York Times, and Silver Bulletin consistently place approval in the high 30s, with disapproval rates exceeding 59%.
• Democrats currently lead in generic congressional ballot questions by margins ranging from 5 to 11 percentage points across multiple surveys.

Background

This decline follows a series of polls in August and September 2026 that showed Trump's approval dropping to 33% in Reuters/Ipsos and 35% in Economist/YouGov surveys. Previous coverage noted that rising energy costs and the Iran conflict were primary drivers of public dissatisfaction. The current 37% reading represents a continued downward trajectory from the 41% recorded in a September 20 NBC News poll, indicating that economic concerns have not abated despite earlier attempts at recovery.

How outlets are covering it

While USA TODAY and The Wall Street Journal emphasize the historical significance of the 37% approval rating by comparing it to the 2006 midterm losses, The Guardian's editorial cartoon focuses on the internal Republican reaction, noting that some party members are turning against the president. Yahoo Finance frames the story primarily through the lens of economic voter sentiment, highlighting the 'grim outlook' for Republicans. CNN's coverage, as indicated by its headline, stresses the 'worsened economic backdrop' as the central driver of the deepening midterm woes. All sources agree on the negative trend but differ in their emphasis: USA TODAY and WSJ focus on historical precedent, while The Guardian and Yahoo Finance focus on the political consequences and economic drivers, respectively.

Why it matters

The 37% approval rating signals a high probability of a Democratic takeover of Congress in the 2026 midterms, mirroring the 2006 cycle. This shift would likely result in a gridlocked government, limiting the president's ability to pass legislation and potentially leading to increased political polarization. The economic dissatisfaction cited by 65% of voters suggests that policy changes regarding tariffs and energy costs may be necessary to reverse this trend, but the current polling indicates that such measures have not yet resonated with the electorate.

What to watch

The next few months will likely see intensified campaign spending and debate over economic policy as the November 2026 midterms approach. Republicans may attempt to shift the narrative away from the economy and toward other issues, but the current polling suggests that economic concerns remain the dominant factor in voter decision-making. The outcome of the midterms will determine whether the president faces a unified or divided Congress for the remainder of his term.