Polls Show Ramaswamy’s Ohio Ad Backfiring, Deepening GOP Rift

Key points

• A private Republican poll found Acton leading Ramaswamy by eight points, up from a two-point lead before the ad aired on Oct. 19.
• The ad features Acton’s estranged mother accusing her of lying, ignoring Acton’s claims of childhood sexual abuse and her mother’s support for the abuser.
• Ramaswamy committed $4 million to air the ad despite warnings from GOP leaders, including Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, who called it wrong.
• President Trump and Vice President JD Vance backed Ramaswamy, with Vance telling critics to 'stop whining.'
• The Cook Political Report moved the race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, citing the ad’s negative impact.
• National GOP operatives fear the backlash could hurt Sen. Jon Husted’s reelection bid in Ohio.

Background

The controversy began when Ramaswamy’s campaign aired an ad featuring Acton’s mother, Donna Arthur, who had not spoken to Acton since 1978. Acton had previously disclosed that she was sexually abused by her stepfather at age 12, and her mother sided with him. The stepfather fled to Pennsylvania and died in 2004. The ad was initially tested online before being pushed statewide. Earlier polls showed Acton leading by two to nine points, but the new poll suggests the ad has widened the gap. The race is now seen as a potential bellwether for Senate control, with Ohio being a key state.

How outlets are covering it

Axios reports that the ad is having a 'significant effect' on the race, with 86% of respondents aware of it and two-thirds saying it made them more likely to vote for Acton. The New York Times emphasizes the ad’s ruthlessness and the resulting GOP division, noting that while Trump and Vance defended it, many Republicans distanced themselves. Cook Political Report highlights the race’s shift to Lean Democrat, attributing it to the ad’s negative impact and the collateral damage to fellow Republicans like Sen. Husted. All sources agree the ad was a miscalculation, but they differ in emphasis: Axios focuses on polling data, NYT on party unity, and Cook on electoral consequences.

Why it matters

The ad’s backfire could cost Ramaswamy the governorship and jeopardize the Republican ticket in Ohio, a state critical for Senate majority. It also exposes deep divisions within the GOP between national leaders and state-level strategists, potentially affecting voter trust in the party ahead of the midterms.

What to watch

Trump is scheduled to campaign in Chillicothe, Ohio, with Ramaswamy and Husted on Wednesday evening. The race remains tight, with Acton leading by eight points in the latest poll. Ramaswamy has defended the ad, arguing Acton misrepresented her past. The outcome could influence the balance of power in the Senate and the perception of the Republican Party’s values.