2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Sets Record for Late Start Amid Strong El Niño

Key points

• No Atlantic hurricane has formed by September 11, 2026, breaking the previous record for the latest first hurricane, which was set in 2002 and 2013.
• Only five named tropical storms have occurred in the Atlantic so far, with none intensifying into hurricanes; the most notable was Tropical Storm Edouard, which weakened after landfall in Texas.
• A 'very strong' El Niño, with Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies reaching 2 degrees Celsius, is driving hostile wind shear and Saharan dust that suppress Atlantic storm development.
• NOAA predicted a 75% chance of below-normal activity for the 2026 season, forecasting 7 to 13 named storms and 2 to 6 hurricanes, which aligns with current observations.
• The Atlantic season officially runs through November 30, meaning late-season hurricanes are still possible despite the current quietude.
• The White House has publicly claimed credit for the lack of hurricanes, a move criticized by commentators as absurd given the natural causes of the weather pattern.

Background

Previous coverage in August and early September 2026 highlighted the unusually quiet Atlantic season, attributing it to El Niño-driven wind shear and dry air. By September 12, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was at 4.4, the lowest since 1950 for that date. Forecasters had warned that while the season was subdued, late-season storms could still form, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast U.S. The current record-breaking late start extends this trend, with the first hurricane not forming until after September 11, a date that had never been passed without a hurricane in the reliable record since 1950.

How outlets are covering it

WLWT and Ars Technica emphasize the meteorological drivers, specifically the 'very strong' El Niño and its impact on wind shear and Saharan dust, as the primary reasons for the record-late start. The Washington Post notes that El Niño is not the only factor, suggesting other atmospheric conditions may be contributing to the quiet season. The Atlantic focuses on the political dimension, criticizing the White House for claiming credit for the lack of hurricanes and highlighting the lack of preparedness for potential future disasters. All sources agree that the current inactivity is historic and aligns with NOAA’s below-normal predictions, but they differ in their emphasis on the causes and the broader implications of the El Niño event.

Why it matters

The record-late start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season underscores the significant impact of El Niño on global weather patterns. While the lack of hurricanes may be seen as a positive for coastal communities, the El Niño event is expected to have broader negative consequences, including potential record global temperatures in 2027 and disruptions to global agriculture and transportation. The political response to the quiet season also highlights the ongoing challenges in communicating climate science and the risks of attributing natural phenomena to political actions. As the season continues through November, vigilance remains essential, as late-season storms can still form and cause significant damage.

What to watch

The Atlantic hurricane season will continue through November 30, 2026, with the possibility of late-season storms forming, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast U.S. Meteorologists will monitor the development of any new tropical systems, as the current quietude does not guarantee a hurricane-free season. The broader impacts of the El Niño event, including its effects on global temperatures and agriculture, will be closely watched in the coming months. The White House’s claim of credit for the quiet season may face further scrutiny as the season progresses and any potential storms develop.