LA County Braces for Historic El Niño Amid Rising Sea Levels and Burn Scar Risks

Key points

• NOAA forecasts a 90% chance of a strong El Niño, with ocean temperatures already at record highs for this time of year.
• The event coincides with the peak of a nearly two-decade lunar cycle, causing higher tides that exacerbate coastal flooding risks.
• LA County Public Works is inspecting 144 debris basins, dams, and spillways, aiming to complete preparations by October 15.
• Officials are prioritizing burn scars from the Eaton and Palisades fires, which are highly susceptible to mudslides and flooding.
• Residents are advised to purchase flood insurance, which has a 30-day waiting period, and to clear gutters and drains immediately.

Background

Recent archive coverage noted a similar 'Super El Niño' trend affecting New England, highlighting global weather pattern shifts. While past El Niño years have not always resulted in the highest flood costs, current conditions are compounded by human-caused global warming, which has raised California’s sea levels by up to one foot over the last century.

How outlets are covering it

LAist and NBC Los Angeles emphasize the compounding risks of El Niño, high tides, and climate change, with climate scientist Daniel Swain stating coastal flooding is 'almost guaranteed.' ABC7 Los Angeles highlights the 'Super El Niño' label and specific vulnerable areas like the Antelope Valley and Long Beach. Axios focuses on practical resident actions, noting that while El Niño winters cause 10 times more flood damage than La Niña winters, the impact is not guaranteed, citing the 2015 'Godzilla El Niño' that fizzled out. All sources agree on the need for immediate infrastructure checks and resident preparedness.

Why it matters

The convergence of a strong El Niño, high tides, and rising sea levels creates a unique risk profile for Southern California. Inadequate preparation could lead to significant property damage, infrastructure failure, and public safety hazards, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and recent wildfire burn zones.

What to watch

LA County will hold a practice El Niño response exercise on September 13 to identify gaps in emergency response. Public Works aims to complete infrastructure inspections by October 15. Supervisor Lindsey Horvath is scheduled to host a virtual town hall later in September to answer resident questions. The El Niño is expected to peak between October and December, with the greatest effects on California from December through March.