"Analyzing the Impact of a Winter Storm Warning on Twin Cities Snow Forecast"

Forecast models, including the usually reliable European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, missed a surge of dry air that kept most of the snow south and east of the Twin Cities, resulting in a significant forecast model bust. While heavy snow and wind hit areas south of the Twin Cities, the city largely missed significant snowfall. The forecast models overestimated snowfall due to a missed dry air intrusion, leading to a big change in the back edge of the snowfall. Bitter cold and wind are expected to continue, with subzero wind chills and temperatures around minus 10 in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.