Iran’s Hardline Drift Intensifies Regime Grip and Hormuz Focus in War Update

ISW-CTP’s Aug 3 Iran Update portrays a regime tightening control under Mojtaba Khamenei with the IRGC pushing a maximalist stance on the Strait of Hormuz, including potential SNSC leadership changes and continued coercive pressure. Tehran blends hardline actions (IRGC force around Hormuz, reported Kurdish raids, and Houthi coordination) with cautious diplomacy over a U.S.-backed MoU, as US-Iran talks persist without clear breakthroughs. Regional tensions persist in Lebanon and the Red Sea, underscoring Iran’s broader leverage amid the war.