All articles tagged with #us iran negotiations
A NYT report says Iran's leadership is split, with hard-liners sabotaging negotiations with the US as Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains unseen; the July strikes on three ships were ordered by Hossein Taeb, illustrating the hard-liner push toward escalation, while the two factions clash over how to move past the stalemate, complicating any potential deal.
Iran’s power structure is described as a decentralized ‘network state’ where Mojtaba Khamenei coordinates loyalty networks and the IRGC grows into the effective decision-maker during wartime. The factions converge on a path to negotiation with the US from positions of strength, but disagree on means and red lines. The article suggests Washington should engage with the IRGC to escape a self‑inflicted quagmire, while warning that Trump’s ego could obstruct mediators’ efforts.
Washington and Tehran exchanged new, hardline demands in talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz: Iran conditions the reopening on major U.S. concessions (ending threats, lifting sanctions, waiving the naval blockade, releasing assets) and compensation for past damages, while the United States demands reparations for decades of conflict; Tehran says talks are conducted via Oman on a joint management plan for the strait. Experts say a broader peace deal is unlikely until Hormuz is resolved, and oil prices rose on the news.
ISW-CTP’s Aug 3 Iran Update portrays a regime tightening control under Mojtaba Khamenei with the IRGC pushing a maximalist stance on the Strait of Hormuz, including potential SNSC leadership changes and continued coercive pressure. Tehran blends hardline actions (IRGC force around Hormuz, reported Kurdish raids, and Houthi coordination) with cautious diplomacy over a U.S.-backed MoU, as US-Iran talks persist without clear breakthroughs. Regional tensions persist in Lebanon and the Red Sea, underscoring Iran’s broader leverage amid the war.
Iran is using its control of the Strait of Hormuz as leverage in U.S.-Iran peace talks, and appears willing to jeopardize the cease-fire to maintain bargaining power amid escalating regional tensions.
The United States issued a 60-day general licence through August 21 allowing Iranian oil production, delivery, and sale to the U.S. as part of talks with Tehran aimed at a final peace deal, with Iran expected to permit Strait of Hormuz transit and IAEA inspections. Vice President JD Vance said progress is encouraging, while oil prices fell on the news and tanker traffic in Hormuz rose amid ongoing dynamics around Iran.
Iran’s top military adviser to the Supreme Leader says US-Iran talks are deadlocked and that Trump must break the stalemate, tying any agreement to the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets as a trust test, while warning Iran could widen a future conflict beyond the Persian Gulf and that it is prepared for a possible US ground invasion.
ISW-CTP’s Iran Update says Tehran is pressing to frame IRGC‑led control of Hormuz transit as the new norm, a stance the US and the international community should reject; negotiations show no major progress on core issues, with Iran seeking unfrozen assets—likely around $12 billion—to fund military reconstitution and offset sanctions, while hardline IRGC figures resist concessions. Reports also flag alleged Chinese arms transfers to Iran, ongoing U.S. and Israeli air/maritime actions, and Axis of Resistance activity (notably Hezbollah–Israel clashes) as diplomacy remains unresolved.
ISW-CTP’s May 28 update ties together a reported 60-day MoU to extend a ceasefire and discuss Iran’s nuclear program with Tehran’s apparent reluctance to concede, especially on relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz. The US is pressuring Iran through sanctions (including on the PGSA) and strikes to prevent a “protection racket,” while Iranian demands for immediate economic relief and ambiguities over terms complicate any deal. Domestically, Iran re-elected Ghalibaf as parliament speaker. In the Lebanon theater, the IDF conducted strikes around Beirut and northeast of the Litani, signaling intensified Israeli activity against Hezbollah amid broader Axis of Resistance actions.
Qatar is reported to have provided substantial financial support to Iran in recent weeks as part of efforts surrounding US-Iran negotiations. The funds, tied to access to Iranian deposits and possibly disguised as tanker payments through the Strait of Hormuz, come as Doha seeks to prevent renewed Iranian attacks and to advance a broader deal, including potential cooperation on a shared gas field. US internal divisions over the deal’s terms—funds release, enrichment commitments, and verification—complicate progress, highlighting Qatar’s growing economic role in the talks and the fragile regional dynamics surrounding Iran.
As rumors of a potential framework to end the US-Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz circulate, Iranians express anger and deep distrust toward both foreign powers and their own leadership, warning that any deal could be a political arrangement at the expense of ordinary people amid high inflation, unemployment and ongoing repression; while some officials push diplomacy, public sentiment ranges from opposition to temporary ceasefires to calls for internal change, and polls reveal sweeping skepticism about a lasting agreement.
ISW-CTP say talks between the US and Iran have shown only slight progress, with the main sticking points being Tehran’s uranium enrichment and its bid to control the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has pressed a “protection racket” model—charging ships for safe passage and seeking formalized control with Oman—while Gulf neighbors and the US reject any de facto dominance of Hormuz, arguing full freedom of navigation is a prerequisite for a durable end to the war. The update also notes ongoing Iranian-backed Iraqi militia activity and US pressure to disarm them, all amid broader regional dynamics and Tehran’s influence efforts.
ISW-CTP’s May 21 update says mediators are narrowing gaps with Iran but Tehran has not yet responded, with nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz remaining the main sticking points. Iran appears divided over HEU concessions while pushing to formalize Hormuz transit through a PGSA-defined maritime zone, a move that expands Iran’s claimed control over regional waters. The ceasefire period is also used to reconstitute its drone and missile programs with help from China and Russia, even as a US-led blockade and sanctions target allied actors like Hezbollah in Lebanon. No major new combat developments are reported.
The ultra-hardline Jebhe-ye Paydari (Endurance Front) is actively opposing any deal with the United States, arguing negotiations betray the 1979 revolution, and is leveraging media, parliament, and street rallies to pressure Tehran’s negotiators. While leaders project unity, the group’s influence persists through senior figures and loyal media networks, complicating talks and signaling ongoing power struggles within Iran as negotiations unfold.
ISW-CTP’s Iran Update says Tehran’s hardliners, led by IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi, are unlikely to concede on the Strait of Hormuz or nuclear issues in upcoming talks, with Iran seeking to present a revised proposal that includes Oman but facing rejection. The regime is preparing for renewed pressure by shoring up internal unity and reconstituting missile/drone forces while considering countermeasures against the US blockade. In the region, Israel is adapting to Hezbollah FPV drones, and Iranian-backed groups remain active, signaling a continued risk of renewed conflict despite the ceasefire.