Goldman Sachs puts Spain on 26% World Cup odds, but warns predictions are not gospel

Goldman Sachs released World Cup odds, giving Spain a 26% chance to win, France 19%, and Argentina 14%, based on a model that analyzed ~20,000 matches and factors like history and momentum. The bank also lists advancement probabilities for all 48 teams, including Canada at 50%, Mexico at 68%, and the United States at 39% to reach the knockout rounds. Experts note that online prediction markets may aggregate information more efficiently, while also emphasizing soccer’s inherent unpredictability. Goldman concedes the model has limits and recalls a misprediction in 2018, calling this year’s forecast an exciting but imperfect exercise.