Piper Sandler Lifts Robinhood Target to $145 as Rothera Gains CFTC Football Approval

Key points

• Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley increased his 2026 and 2027 earnings per share estimates for Robinhood by 5% and 7%, respectively, and raised the price target to $145 from $135.
• Rothera, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna, has obtained CFTC approval to offer contracts covering football wins and spreads ahead of the NFL and NCAA seasons.
• Moley estimates that approximately 23% of prediction market volume has shifted from Kalshi to Rothera since the latter launched in June, reducing Robinhood users' share of Kalshi volume to the mid-single digits.
• The firm projects Robinhood users will trade roughly 29.7 billion event contracts and generate $320 million in revenue between September and December, equating to $960 million annualized.
• Moley cited strong World Cup engagement as a leading indicator, noting that average monthly prediction market volumes at Robinhood grew 88% between June and August compared to the January to May period.

Background

Robinhood launched Rothera in June 2026 as a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse regulated by the CFTC. The platform competes with Kalshi, which previously dominated prediction market volume for major sports. Earlier in 2026, the World Cup drove significant volume growth in prediction markets, setting a precedent for the upcoming football season.

How outlets are covering it

CNBC and Pluang focus on the financial implications for Robinhood, highlighting Piper Sandler's bullish outlook and the shift in volume from Kalshi to Rothera. In contrast, chiefswire.usatoday.com emphasizes the broader competitive landscape, detailing promotional offers from Polymarket, Kalshi, Underdog, Novig, and ProphetX for NFL prediction markets, without directly addressing Robinhood's specific revenue projections or the Rothera-Kalshi volume shift.

Why it matters

The CFTC approval for football contracts and the shift in volume from Kalshi to Rothera indicate a significant change in the prediction market landscape, potentially driving substantial revenue growth for Robinhood in the second half of 2026.

What to watch

Investors will monitor Robinhood's third and fourth-quarter 2026 results to see if prediction market revenue aligns with Piper Sandler's projections, while the broader market will watch how volume distribution evolves among competing platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Novig.