Derby Curse Debunked: Regression, Not a Swing Spell

FanGraphs analyzes 2022–2025 derby data and finds that derby participants typically slump in the second half relative to their hot first halves, suggesting the ‘curse’ is more about regression to norms and selection bias than a swing-change phenomenon; the piece highlights sell-high candidates (Murakami, Caglianone) for fantasy leagues, notes Walker and Rice look capable of sustaining gains, and cautions that veteran outliers Schwarber and Contreras may remain valuable despite potential declines.