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Baseball Analytics

All articles tagged with #baseball analytics

sports2 months ago•11 min saved

2026 MLB Debutants Shatter Historical Performance Records

In 2026, major league baseball debutants are achieving historically unprecedented offensive success, with a collective OPS+ of 181, far exceeding the league average. This surge is highlighted by Joshua Báez’s three-home-run debut for the Cardinals, marking the first time a player has hit three homers in their first major league game. While analysts note this may be an anomaly rather than a new normal, the data suggests a significant shift in how young players transition from the minors to the majors.

via The Ringer|

#baseball-analytics #joshua-baez #mlb

sports2 months ago•45 min saved

Measuring Momentum: Can the Red Sox's hot stretch be quantified?

The Red Sox are on an eight-game win streak, and players say momentum feels real, but quantifying it is tricky. A Globe analysis of Retrosheet data finds that the longer a team has won in a row, the higher its next-game win probability (about .516 after two wins, .535 after three, and .551 after five), with losses showing the opposite pattern. Still, confounding factors like team quality and randomness make momentum more a reflection of underlying strength than a mysterious force.

via The Boston Globe|

#baseball-analytics #momentum #red-sox

sports3 months ago•19 min saved

PCA’s 2026 Breakout: A Cubs Season Rewriting Franchise Records

Pete Crow‑Armstrong’s 2026 first half has him at roughly .291/.386/.531 with a 153 wRC+ and about 6.0 fWAR by the All‑Star break, making it one of the Cubs’ most valuable seasons. Projections push his final tally toward 8.5 WAR, potentially ranking among the Cubs’ top seasons by fWAR and nearing the franchise’s best marks, though likely short of Hornsby’s 11.0 WAR in 1929. In short, we’re witnessing a historically great Cubs season.

via Bleacher Nation|

#baseball-analytics #chicago-cubs #fwar

sports3 months ago•21 min saved

Derby Curse Debunked: Regression, Not a Swing Spell

FanGraphs analyzes 2022–2025 derby data and finds that derby participants typically slump in the second half relative to their hot first halves, suggesting the ‘curse’ is more about regression to norms and selection bias than a swing-change phenomenon; the piece highlights sell-high candidates (Murakami, Caglianone) for fantasy leagues, notes Walker and Rice look capable of sustaining gains, and cautions that veteran outliers Schwarber and Contreras may remain valuable despite potential declines.

via FanGraphs|

#baseball-analytics #derby-participants #fantasy-baseball

sports6 months ago•10 min saved

ABS Arrives: Subtler Framing and a Shifting MLB Challenge Game

Automated balls and strikes (ABS) are already reshaping MLB. Catchers must frame pitches more subtly, reducing big glove moves and influencing when to challenge, which is changing how calls are made and challenged. Early data point to quieter dugouts, greater game-situation awareness, and a growing emphasis on strike-zone discipline, with walks and strikeouts climbing. A new, informal stat idea—“Terminators”—highlights catcher-driven strikeouts from challenges, led by Ryan Jeffers, while the piece also surveys other early ABS effects and related player and pitching notes. These are early trends and will evolve as the season progresses.

via Sports Illustrated|

#abs #baseball-analytics #mlb