TPLF Withdraws From Mekelle as Ethiopia’s Conflict Spreads to Capital

Key points

• TPLF fighters abandoned Mekelle as government troops advanced, marking a major tactical shift in the conflict.
• Residents confirmed pro-government control of the city and the partial resumption of mobile phone services.
• Explosions were reported in Addis Ababa, indicating the conflict is spreading beyond the northern regions.
• Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic ties after Addis Ababa accused Asmara of supporting the rebels.
• Leaders from Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan met in El-Alamein to call for peaceful dispute resolution.

Background

This escalation follows the collapse of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended a devastating civil war that killed an estimated 600,000 people. Relations deteriorated over the past six months, leading to the formation of a new rebel alliance in September 2026. The TPLF joined six other armed groups, including the Fano militia, to challenge Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Previous conflicts in the region had already left Tigray cash-strapped and isolated, with internet and banking services cut off.

How outlets are covering it

BBC reports that the TPLF withdrawal was a strategic decision to protect civilians, while two residents confirmed the city is under government control. The Washington Post emphasizes the broader regional instability, noting that drone strikes in Addis Ababa signal a widening war that could affect the Red Sea and Horn of Africa. AP News focuses on the immediate military outcome, confirming that Mekelle airport is back under Ethiopian military control. While all sources agree on the TPLF’s retreat, the Washington Post highlights the potential for spillover into neighboring countries, whereas BBC and AP focus on the immediate humanitarian and diplomatic fallout.

Why it matters

The fall of Mekelle marks a significant escalation in a conflict that had been dormant since 2022. The spread of fighting to the capital and the severing of diplomatic ties with Eritrea and Egypt threaten to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. The UN has warned that the deteriorating security situation is severely disrupting humanitarian aid, potentially leading to a new crisis in a region already scarred by famine and mass displacement.

What to watch

Diplomatic efforts are underway, with a meeting in Egypt involving leaders from Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan. The US State Department has called for restraint and dialogue. However, with diplomatic ties severed between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and mutual accusations of supporting rebels, the path to de-escalation remains unclear. The UN is urging all sides to guarantee safe access for humanitarian workers.