Alaska Senate race nears 50% threshold as Peltola widens lead over Sullivan
Mary Peltola leads the Alaska U.S. Senate race with nearly 50% of first-choice votes, but the outcome remains uncalled. The Associated Press has not declared a winner, and final results depend on ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18. Legal challenges regarding a second candidate named Dan Sullivan have been dismissed, though appeals continue.
Key points
- Peltola holds a lead of nearly four percentage points over incumbent Dan S. Sullivan, but has not yet reached the 50% majority required to win outright.
- The Associated Press estimates 96% of ballots are counted but has not called the race, which is the only unresolved U.S. Senate contest.
- If no candidate reaches 50%, the Division of Elections will eliminate the lowest candidate and reallocate votes based on second choices on November 18.
- A federal lawsuit seeking to block certification due to a second candidate named Dan Sullivan was dismissed, though the Justice Department is appealing.
- Peltola would become the first Indigenous Alaskan elected to the U.S. Senate if she wins.
Background
Alaska’s unique logistics, including vast distances and reliance on air transport for ballots, have delayed final results. Previous coverage noted that Peltola’s lead narrowed slightly after Matanuska-Susitna borough votes were counted but remained significant. Legal disputes over rejected ballot data and the presence of a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot have complicated the certification process.
How outlets are covering it
Alaska Public Media and The New York Times agree that Peltola is on track to win but emphasize the uncertainty due to the lack of a 50% majority. The BBC highlights the logistical challenges of counting ballots across the state, noting that mail ballots can arrive up to 15 days late. The Alaska Beacon focuses on close state House races, noting that ranked-choice tabulations in Matanuska-Susitna borough are too close to call, with margins as small as five votes in some districts.
Why it matters
The outcome determines whether Democrats hold a 56-member Senate majority. Peltola’s potential victory would mark a historic first for Indigenous representation in the Senate. The legal battles over ballot integrity and the presence of a duplicate candidate name highlight ongoing concerns about election security and transparency in close races.
What to watch
The Division of Elections will conduct the official ranked-choice tabulation on November 18, after the deadline for overseas ballots. The state’s final certification is scheduled for November 25. The Justice Department’s appeal of the dismissed lawsuit is expected to proceed without an expedited schedule, meaning no decision is anticipated before the new Congress is sworn in.
- Peltola leads in U.S. Senate race, nearing 50% mark with almost all ballots counted Alaska Public Media
- Alaska Senate Race Between Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola Still Counting Votes The New York Times
- In Alaska’s legislative elections, a handful of races remain undecided nail-biters Alaska Beacon
- Peltola vs. Sullivan not alone: 24 Alaska races still too close to call The Hill
- Why midterm vote-counting is taking so long in America's largest state BBC
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