US, China, Russia leaders to hold first trilateral nuclear talks in Shenzhen

Key points

• The trilateral meeting between Trump, Xi, and Putin is scheduled for next week in Shenzhen, China, on the sidelines of the APEC summit.
• The primary agenda item is nuclear nonproliferation, specifically discussing potential reductions in the three nations' nuclear stockpiles.
• White House officials, including spokesperson Olivia Wales, stated that no binding agreement is expected, describing the talks as a 'beginning of a conversation.'
• The meeting will also address the situation in Iran, but Ukraine will not be part of the trilateral discussions.
• The talks come after the expiration of the US-Russia nuclear arms treaty in February, which ended decades of arms control cooperation.
• Trump is also scheduled for bilateral talks with Xi on Thursday, marking their fourth meeting since his return to office in 2025.

Background

This development follows a period of heightened diplomatic activity in late 2026. In early November, Trump met with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev at the White House, a move that occurred alongside a six-day ceasefire in Oleshky but without a meeting with Ukrainian delegates. Additionally, US envoys recently met with Putin in Moscow following trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi that resulted in a prisoner exchange but no ceasefire. The current nuclear talks are part of a broader shift in US foreign policy, where Trump has sought to replace the expired US-Russia treaty with a new framework that includes China, a move that former US officials have suggested could face significant hurdles.

How outlets are covering it

Politico emphasizes the historic nature of the meeting, noting it is the first time the leaders of the three largest nuclear powers will convene to discuss nonproliferation. CNN highlights the skepticism of US officials, who downplayed the likelihood of a new deal, characterizing the event as an 'entry point' for future conversations. BBC provides broader context on the diplomatic landscape, noting that while Trump’s trip aims to 'secure historic wins,' the exclusion of Ukraine from the agenda and the lack of confirmed participation from Beijing and Moscow suggest significant diplomatic friction. All three sources agree that the talks are preliminary and that no immediate agreement is expected, but they differ in their emphasis on the potential long-term implications of such a trilateral framework.

Why it matters

The meeting represents a potential shift in global nuclear governance, moving from bilateral US-Russia frameworks to a trilateral model that includes China. Given the expiration of the US-Russia treaty in February, the absence of major guardrails on the world’s largest nuclear arsenals has raised concerns among international bodies, including the UN. If the talks yield even a preliminary framework, it could signal a new era of arms control cooperation, though the lack of immediate agreement suggests that significant hurdles remain. The exclusion of Ukraine from the agenda also highlights the complex and fragmented nature of current global diplomacy, where regional conflicts and nuclear policy are being addressed in separate, often conflicting, forums.

What to watch

The trilateral meeting is scheduled for next week in Shenzhen, following Trump’s arrival on Wednesday for the APEC summit. Bilateral talks between Trump and Xi are expected on Thursday. The outcome of the nuclear discussions will be closely watched by international observers, particularly given the expiration of the US-Russia treaty. Further developments may include official confirmations from Beijing and Moscow, as well as potential follow-up meetings or statements from the UN regarding the progress of nuclear arms control cooperation.