Economic Pain and Iran War Drive Record-Low Trump Approval Ahead of Midterms

Key points

• Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 33-34% among U.S. adults, a second-term low, with 66% disapproving and 51-52% strongly disapproving.
• 71-72% of Americans believe the country is on the 'wrong track,' the highest share in Trump’s second term.
• Democrats hold an 8-point lead over Republicans for control of the House among registered voters, a significant jump from July.
• For the first time in over a decade, Democrats are viewed as more trustworthy than Republicans on handling the economy.
• 44% of Americans say their financial situation is worse than a year ago, with 67% citing gas prices as a serious problem.
• 65% of voters consider the war with Iran a mistake, and 68% disapprove of Trump’s handling of U.S. allies.

Background

This decline follows a trend observed in early October, where polls already indicated record-low approval ratings in 39 states. Recent efforts by the administration to court specific demographics, such as Italian Americans through Columbus Day events, have not reversed the downward trajectory driven by fuel prices and the Iran conflict. Earlier data also showed Democrats becoming competitive in key red-state Senate races, suggesting that local candidate quality and economic discontent are influencing outcomes beyond national trends.

How outlets are covering it

NBC News emphasizes the 'grim national mood' and the 'deeply unhappy' sentiment, highlighting that Trump’s approval is sinking into the 20s among some groups. The Washington Post focuses on the 'acrid mood' and the specific impact of the Iran war on gasoline prices, noting that 71% now find gas unaffordable, a flip from February. USA Today highlights the historical context of midterms, noting that while Democrats have a national advantage, individual races depend on turnout, which may be lower for Republicans. AP-NORC provides a broader view, noting that 80% of voters want 'substantial change' or 'total upheaval,' and that 64% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy. All sources agree on the low approval numbers but differ in emphasis: NBC and Post focus on the collapse of trust, while AP-NORC highlights the desire for systemic change regardless of party.

Why it matters

The midterm elections on November 3 will determine whether the Republican Party retains its congressional majorities. The current polling suggests a high risk of losing the House and potentially the Senate, which would limit Trump’s ability to enact his agenda. The economic pain, particularly regarding inflation and energy costs, is the primary driver of voter dissatisfaction. If the trend continues, the GOP may face a 'blue wave' similar to 2018, significantly impacting the balance of power in Washington for the next two years.

What to watch

The focus will shift to final campaign efforts and voter turnout in the two weeks before Election Day. Republicans are expected to focus on energizing their base, particularly MAGA supporters, while Democrats will emphasize economic relief and opposition to the Iran war. The outcome of competitive Senate races in states like Texas, Ohio, and Iowa will be critical in determining whether Democrats can achieve a majority. The promised $5,000 payments may also be a factor, though most voters doubt they will receive them.