Inflation and Iran War Drive Trump to Record-Low 36% Approval Ahead of Midterms

Key points

• Trump’s overall job approval stands at 36%, his lowest in any Fox News survey, down from 39% in May.
• 74% of voters rate the economy negatively, while 55% say inflation is not at all under control.
• Democrats lead the House race 54% to 45%, with 70% of voters saying they will vote to send a message to Trump.
• The Iran war has increased costs for the average household by $2,000, according to Moody’s Analytics.
• Gas prices rose 9.1% in September, and fuel oil prices surged 74% year-over-year.

Background

This decline follows a trend of falling approval ratings observed in late September, where Trump’s net approval hit -23. Previous polls indicated that foreign policy and economic anxiety were already eroding support among Republicans and independents. The current data confirms that these issues are now the primary drivers of voter dissatisfaction in the final weeks before the election.

How outlets are covering it

Fox News emphasizes the sharp drop in approval among younger voters and those with lower incomes, noting that 55% of voters say inflation is uncontrolled. CNN focuses on the geopolitical dimension, arguing that Iran’s recent attacks on oil infrastructure are deliberately keeping prices high to hurt Republicans before the vote. CBC highlights the disconnect between Trump’s claims that prices are falling and the reality of rising costs, noting that voters in deep-red areas are feeling the pinch. The Washington Post illustrates the human impact, showing how rising costs are affecting even loyal Republican voters in places like Bullhead City, Arizona. While all outlets agree on the economic pain, they differ on the primary cause: Fox and CBC focus on domestic policy and tariffs, while CNN and the Post emphasize the external shock from the Iran conflict.

Why it matters

The record-low approval rating signals a significant vulnerability for the Republican Party in the 2026 midterms. With the economy and inflation dominating voter concerns, the administration’s inability to lower costs—compounded by the Iran war—threatens its control of Congress. The widening Democratic lead in the House race suggests that economic dissatisfaction is translating into electoral support for the opposition, potentially resulting in a major shift in power in November.

What to watch

The Consumer Price Index report is scheduled for release, which will provide further data on the trajectory of inflation. Trump is expected to continue campaign rallies in key swing states to shore up support. The outcome of the midterms will likely depend on whether the administration can present a credible plan to lower costs or if the current economic trends persist through Election Day.