Israel’s fragmented election leaves Netanyahu and Eisenkot short of majority, raising coalition crisis risks

Key points

• Turnout reached a 20-year high, signaling high stakes for voters.
• Netanyahu’s coalition is projected to win 54 seats, while Eisenkot’s bloc is forecast at 48.
• Arab parties are predicted to win 18 seats, a sharp increase from 10 in the outgoing parliament.
• Herzog has 28 days to appoint a candidate to form a government, with possible extensions.
• Netanyahu claimed victory in the 'Jewish camp' and urged rivals to join his government.
• Opposition leaders fear Netanyahu may refuse to recognize the results if he fails to form a coalition.

Background

This election is the first since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, and was viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s rule. Previous archive coverage noted that 600,000 absentee ballots remain uncounted, delaying final results until Thursday. Earlier reports also highlighted that Arab parties are positioned as potential kingmakers, though coalition formation remains uncertain due to pre-election refusals by some opposition leaders to ally with them.

Why it matters

The deadlock risks a constitutional crisis if Netanyahu refuses to accept the results or if no coalition can be formed. A new government formation process could be upended by a renewed US-Israeli offensive against Iran, which both Netanyahu and President Trump have pledged to carry out, though a fresh campaign is seen as unlikely until after next week’s US midterm elections.

What to watch

Herzog will hold consultations with party officials to determine who receives the mandate to form a government. The new Knesset’s first session is set for November 14, during which the opposition is expected to move to replace the current parliamentary speaker, Likud official Amir Ohana. If no government is formed, the Knesset may be dissolved and new elections called.