Lula Stages Historic Comeback to Win Fourth Term, Defeating Flávio Bolsonaro

Key points

• Lula won the runoff with 51.75% of the vote, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.25%.
• Lula reversed a 2.2 million vote loss from the first round to win by 4.3 million votes.
• Voter turnout increased from 21.08% abstention in the first round to 19.21% in the runoff.
• Massive protests in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, including over one million people on Copacabana beach, boosted Lula’s momentum.
• The victory ends a string of right-wing wins in Latin America, disappointing US President Donald Trump.
• Lula will face a conservative Congress and uncertainty regarding his political successor.

Background

Lula had previously won three non-consecutive terms, first in 2002, and returned to power in 2022 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro, who was later jailed for plotting a coup. The 2026 election saw a significant right-wing advance in the Senate, with 34 of 54 elected senators from the right or far-right. Flávio Bolsonaro, Jair’s son, had led the first round on October 4, 2026, with 47% of the vote, while Lula received 45.1%. The runoff was scheduled for October 25, 2026, amid concerns about economic anxiety and democratic backsliding.

How outlets are covering it

The Guardian emphasized Lula’s dramatic comeback and the massive street protests that mobilized his supporters, highlighting the emotional impact of the victory on progressive Brazilians. Fox News focused on the narrow margin of victory and the potential legal challenges from the Bolsonaro camp, particularly regarding a last-minute two-hour voting extension ordered by a Supreme Court justice. Fox also noted the conservative surge in Latin America and the disappointment for Trump, while Politico analyzed the long-term implications for the global left, questioning whether Lula’s coalition could survive without him and how the Workers Party would navigate the post-Lula era. Politico highlighted the concerns about Lula’s lack of a clear successor and the potential for internal factional struggles within the party.

Why it matters

Lula’s victory is a significant setback for the far-right movement in Brazil and Latin America, particularly for US President Donald Trump, who had hoped for a pro-Trump ally in the region. The result also raises questions about the future of the Workers Party and the global left, as Lula’s coalition may struggle to maintain its broad appeal without his leadership. Lula will face a conservative Congress and must navigate economic challenges and social divisions, while the Bolsonaro movement remains a powerful force in Brazilian politics. The election also highlights the importance of voter turnout and street mobilization in shaping electoral outcomes.

What to watch

Lula will begin his fourth term, facing a conservative Congress and the challenge of maintaining his coalition. The Bolsonaro camp may challenge the election results, particularly regarding the voting extension. The Workers Party will need to address the question of succession and potential internal divisions. The global left will watch closely to see how Lula’s coalition adapts to changing political and economic conditions. The next presidential election is scheduled for 2030, with potential candidates including Tarcisio de Freitas and other figures from the Bolsonaro movement.