Tropical Storm Rachel triggers historic coastal flooding across Southern California

Key points

• Tropical Storm Rachel is expected to make landfall near the California-Mexico border early Sunday, with the National Weather Service issuing a rare tropical storm watch for San Diego County.
• Coastal flooding has already affected Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, and Long Beach, with waves breaching berms and inundating streets. The worst conditions are forecast for Sunday.
• The storm’s unusual strength is attributed to a marine heat wave and El Niño conditions, which have raised ocean temperatures 10 to 13 degrees above normal, providing more energy for the system.
• Rainfall is expected to be light to moderate in Los Angeles County (0.25 to 1 inch), but higher in San Diego and Orange counties, with a 40% chance of flash flooding in areas like San Diego and Palm Springs.
• Long Beach has already suffered damage from back-to-back storms, including Hurricane Marie and Polo, and is now facing further erosion and structural damage from Rachel’s swells.

Background

Southern California has been experiencing an unusually active hurricane season fueled by El Niño conditions. Previous storms, including Tropical Storm Marie and Hurricane Polo, have already caused significant coastal damage and flooding. The current El Niño is forecast to be the strongest in the modern record, with an 83% probability of being record-breaking, which is contributing to higher tides and more powerful storm systems.

How outlets are covering it

The Los Angeles Times emphasizes the unprecedented nature of the flooding, highlighting the combination of El Niño, a Kelvin wave, and Tropical Storm Rachel. The Orange County Register focuses on the immediate impact in Newport Beach and Laguna Beach, noting that the flooding is the worst in decades and that the city has declared a local emergency. The Long Beach Post provides a long-term perspective on the vulnerability of the Peninsula, detailing the city’s efforts to rebuild the beach and the potential costs of long-term shoreline restoration. All sources agree that the current conditions are severe and that more damage is expected, but they differ in their focus on immediate impacts versus long-term infrastructure challenges.

Why it matters

The arrival of Tropical Storm Rachel highlights the increasing risks posed by climate change and El Niño conditions to coastal communities in Southern California. The severe flooding and potential for further damage underscore the need for improved infrastructure and long-term shoreline restoration projects to protect against future storms.

What to watch

Tropical Storm Rachel is expected to make landfall near the California-Mexico border early Sunday, with the worst coastal flooding and rain expected through Tuesday. The National Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for San Diego County and a coastal flood advisory for Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego counties. Residents are advised to stay clear of flooded areas and prepare for potential wind damage and hazardous seas.