Summer 2026 Forecast Flags Heat, Drought and Fire Risk Across the U.S.

NOAA's summer forecast shows a warmer-than-average July–September for most of the U.S., with Oregon and Washington most likely to see above-normal temperatures; rainfall overall stays near average, but the Southwest and parts of the West could get above-average rain from monsoon moisture and tropical storms, potentially easing drought and wildfire risk there. The Northwest remains prone to higher fire risk, drought could intensify in the northern Rockies, and late-summer moisture could create flood risk from northern Texas to the Midwest.