Ethiopian forces seize Mekelle as Tigray rebels retreat amid diplomatic rupture

Key points

• Federal forces and pro-government militias entered Mekelle on Saturday, with humanitarian sources confirming the TPLF’s withdrawal from the city.
• Residents reported a security vacuum in Mekelle, with government offices and police stations left unguarded, raising fears of looting and lawlessness.
• Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic ties on Thursday, with Addis Ababa expelling Asmara’s diplomats and Cairo reciprocating after Ethiopia expelled an Egyptian envoy.
• A mini-summit involving leaders from Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan is scheduled for Sunday in Alamein, Egypt, to address the crisis.
• Amnesty International is calling for an emergency session of the African Union’s Peace and Security Council, citing reports of aerial strikes on civilian infrastructure and communications blackouts.

Background

This escalation follows the collapse of the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which had maintained an uneasy calm since the devastating 2020-2022 civil war that killed over 600,000 people. Previous coverage noted that the TPLF had seized three national airports and formed a new rebel alliance, the Alliance for Survival, in late September. The current fighting is part of a broader pattern of armed conflict in Ethiopia, including in Oromia, where accountability for past violations remains largely absent.

How outlets are covering it

France 24 emphasizes the military momentum, noting that federal forces have pushed rebels back across three axes toward Mekelle, while highlighting the diplomatic fallout with Eritrea and Egypt. The Vatican News focuses on the humanitarian and moral dimension, with Pope Leo XIV and the Catholic Bishops of Ethiopia urging dialogue and reconciliation, warning that war deepens divisions and harms the vulnerable. Amnesty International takes a critical stance toward the international community, arguing that the African Union, which guaranteed the previous ceasefire, must act immediately to prevent mass atrocities and restore independent monitoring, rather than waiting for a surge in casualties.

Why it matters

The fall of Mekelle marks a significant shift in the balance of power, potentially ending the current phase of the conflict but risking a power vacuum. The diplomatic rupture with Eritrea and Egypt threatens to regionalize the conflict, while the communications blackout and lack of independent monitoring raise serious concerns about unreported human rights abuses. The failure of previous peace mechanisms underscores the urgent need for effective international intervention to prevent a return to the scale of the 2020-2022 war.

What to watch

Observers will watch the outcome of the Sunday mini-summit in Egypt and whether the African Union convenes an emergency session. The security situation in Mekelle will be closely monitored for signs of looting or further instability. Additionally, the TPLF’s leader, Debretsion Gebremichael, has indicated a strategy of guerrilla-style attacks, suggesting that sporadic violence may continue even after the capture of the capital.