Kabila’s New Rebel Coalition Threatens to Overthrow Tshisekedi by Force

Key points

• Kabila, 55, announced the FRN from his residence in Goma, which has been under M23 control since January 2025.
• The coalition’s leadership includes M23 chief Sultani Makenga, former elections commissioner Corneille Nangaa, and medical official Freddy Kaniki.
• Kabila accused President Tshisekedi of mismanaging the economy, undermining constitutional rule, and failing to improve security.
• The UN reports over 7.8 million people are displaced in the east, with 28 million facing food shortages due to the ongoing conflict.
• The US imposed sanctions on Kabila in May 2026, alleging he funded rebel groups and encouraged defections from the Congolese army.

Background

This development follows a year of escalating tensions in eastern DRC, where the M23 and the Congo River Alliance (AFC) seized key territories, including Goma and Bukavu, in early 2025. Kabila, who ruled from 2001 to 2019, had been in self-imposed exile in South Africa since 2023 before returning to Goma. In October 2025, a military court in Kinshasa sentenced him to death in absentia for treason and war crimes. Recent peace efforts, including a US-led agreement between DRC and Rwanda in June 2025 and the Doha Framework signed in November 2025, have struggled to halt the violence. The region has also faced an Ebola outbreak, with over 4,000 deaths reported this year, complicating the humanitarian crisis.

How outlets are covering it

Al Jazeera emphasizes the chilling threat posed by the FRN’s pledge to use force, highlighting the potential for further escalation and the collapse of the Doha peace process. It notes that the coalition’s formation confirms Kinshasa’s long-standing accusations of Kabila’s ties to the rebels. BBC Africa focuses on the strategic implications, noting that Kabila’s higher profile aims to broaden the rebellion’s support base beyond the M23’s narrow political following. BBC also highlights the constitutional crisis, as Tshisekedi has hinted at seeking a third term, potentially bypassing the 2028 elections due to the conflict. Both outlets agree that the move undermines the US-brokered peace deal, though BBC notes that Kigali may still pursue the US-led talks to maintain its position.

Why it matters

Kabila’s formal alliance with the M23 marks a significant shift from his previous denials of involvement, potentially destabilizing the region further. The FRN’s explicit threat to use force could lead to increased military defections and a hardening of Kinshasa’s stance against the rebels. This development jeopardizes the fragile peace talks and may prolong the humanitarian crisis, which already affects millions. Additionally, the constitutional uncertainty surrounding Tshisekedi’s potential third term adds a layer of political instability to the conflict, raising concerns about the future of democratic governance in the DRC.

What to watch

Analysts expect Kinshasa to intensify efforts to isolate Kabila and the FRN regionally. The outcome will depend on Kabila’s ability to consolidate control over the rebellion and expand alliances beyond North and South Kivu. Peace talks, particularly the Doha process, are likely to collapse, while the US-led negotiations between DRC and Rwanda may continue. The situation could lead to further military escalation, with potential defections from the Congolese army to Kabila’s side. The constitutional debate over the 2028 elections may also intensify, with Tshisekedi potentially seeking to extend his rule through a referendum.