Belarus on the Sidelines as Putin Seeks a War Victory

Belarusian President Lukashenko remains wary of joining Russia’s war in Ukraine despite Moscow’s pressure, with Kyiv warning of possible northern threats while Minsk continues to host Russian drills and drone activity. While Putin may press for Belarusian intervention to claim a victory, doing so would risk Lukashenko’s hold on power, making a full Belarusian invasion unlikely in the near term. Still, Belarus’ role as a strategic staging ground keeps Moscow’s leverage—and the threat—alive as the war drags on.