Ethiopia and Eritrea sever ties as Tigray conflict threatens regional stability

Key points

• Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and ordered 10 Eritrean diplomats to leave within 48 hours, citing national security threats. Eritrea reciprocated by severing all diplomatic ties.
• Ethiopian federal forces are battling the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and allied groups in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara. A pro-government militia claims to have seized Milazat, 20km from Mekelle, though this is unverified.
• Explosions were heard in Addis Ababa near military headquarters. The UN warned that drone strikes and insecurity are disrupting humanitarian operations and putting civilians at risk.
• Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat, prompting Egypt to expel an Ethiopian official. This move is linked to long-standing tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
• The African Union and UN have urged restraint, warning that the conflict could destabilize the region. The TPLF and its allies accuse the government of starting the hostilities, while Addis Ababa blames the rebels.

Background

This escalation follows the 2020-2022 Tigray war, which ended with the Pretoria Peace Agreement in November 2022. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea had improved after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed restored ties in 2018, earning him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. However, tensions resurfaced over Ethiopia's push for Red Sea access, a key issue since Eritrea's independence in 1993. The current conflict is the most serious since the 2022 peace deal, with the TPLF forming a new seven-group alliance in late September 2026 to challenge Abiy's government.

How outlets are covering it

BBC and Al Jazeera both report the severance of ties and the expulsion of diplomats, but differ in emphasis. BBC highlights the unverified claim of Eritrean soldiers on the front lines and the lack of independent verification due to communication blackouts. Al Jazeera focuses on Ethiopia's accusations that Sudan, Egypt, and Eritrea are backing the rebels, and includes statements from US representatives calling for peace negotiations. Both outlets note Eritrea's denial of involvement, but Al Jazeera adds that Eritrea accuses Ethiopia of hosting and arming Eritrean opposition groups. BBC emphasizes the humanitarian impact and UN warnings, while Al Jazeera details the historical context of the 1962 annexation and 1993 independence struggle.

Why it matters

The diplomatic rupture between Ethiopia and Eritrea, two former allies in the 2020-2022 Tigray war, signals a potential wider regional conflict. The fighting threatens Ethiopia's vital trade corridor to Djibouti and risks drawing in neighboring states like Sudan and Egypt. The UN's warning about disrupted humanitarian aid highlights the immediate risk to civilians in northern Ethiopia, where tens of thousands have fled their homes. The conflict also underscores the fragility of peace in the Horn of Africa, where unresolved issues like Red Sea access and water rights continue to fuel tensions.

What to watch

The African Union and UN are urging all parties to exercise restraint and return to diplomatic channels. However, with communications cut in Tigray and fighting intensifying in Afar and Amhara, the situation remains volatile. The TPLF and its allies are advancing towards Mekelle, while Ethiopian forces are making gains in southern Tigray. The outcome of the conflict will depend on whether external actors, including Egypt and Sudan, can be de-escalated, and whether humanitarian access can be restored. The UN has called for safe and unhindered access for aid workers, but the risk of further escalation remains high.