Ethiopia and Eritrea teeter on the edge of a Red Sea war as Tigray conflict escalates

Key points

• Ethiopia’s Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) launched an offensive in September, briefly capturing Mekelle before government forces reversed their gains.
• Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of sending thousands of troops to support the TPLF, while Eritrea claims Ethiopia declared a war of aggression by seeking Red Sea access by force.
• Ethiopia has launched drone strikes on Eritrean troops in Tigray, and both countries have shuttered their embassies, with a formal declaration of war anticipated.
• Ethiopia is backed by the UAE and Israel, while Eritrea has strengthened ties with Somalia, Egypt, and Sudan, creating a complex web of regional alliances.
• Ethiopia’s internal conflict involves a coalition of six armed groups, including the Fano militia and Oromo Liberation Army, aiming to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Background

This escalation follows Abiy Ahmed’s recent re-election and his renewed demands for Red Sea access, which neighboring states have rejected. The region is already strained by conflicts in Sudan and Yemen, with Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia highlighting broader instability. Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access has long been a point of contention, with Eritrea viewing it as a threat to its sovereignty.

Why it matters

A war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could trigger a wider regional conflict, involving multiple powers with competing interests in the Red Sea. This could disrupt global shipping routes, exacerbate humanitarian crises, and destabilize the Horn of Africa, with implications for international security and trade.

What to watch

Ethiopia may issue a formal declaration of war against Eritrea in the coming days. The conflict could expand beyond Tigray, with Ethiopia potentially targeting Eritrean Red Sea ports. Regional powers are likely to intervene, with Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea coordinating military and intelligence efforts to counter an Ethiopian advance.