Taiwan's Future: Tensions Rise as China Prepares for Conflict

Fears of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan are overblown, and Western policymakers should focus on reducing tensions rather than needlessly provoking conflict. Historically, Chinese leaders have tempered their foreign policy during times of domestic turmoil and have favored measures short of conflict to achieve their objectives. The hard but crucial task for US policymakers is to thread the needle between deterrence and provocation. Domestic considerations and the military balance of power are not the only factors Xi will weigh when deciding whether to attack Taiwan.