Bachelet exits UN chief race as Grynspan leads fragmented field

Key points

• Bachelet announced her withdrawal via Instagram on Saturday, stating she would continue her international work with the same determination.
• The third informal straw poll on September 18 showed Bachelet receiving only one 'encourage' vote, 11 'discourage' votes, and three 'no opinion' votes.
• Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica led the same poll with nine 'encourage' votes, followed by Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana with eight.
• The Security Council requires nine 'encourage' votes and no veto from any of the five permanent members to formally recommend a candidate to the General Assembly.
• Other remaining candidates include Rafael Grossi, Macky Sall, and Maria Fernanda Espinosa, with the possibility of new entrants still open.

Background

The selection process for the UN secretary-general has been marked by regional rotation expectations and geopolitical tensions. Previous coverage noted that Latin America was in line for the role, with Bachelet nominated by Chile with backing from Brazil and Mexico. The race has also been influenced by US efforts to shape the outcome and push for budget reforms. Guterres has warned of imminent financial collapse due to unpaid dues, adding urgency to the leadership transition.

How outlets are covering it

The Guardian emphasized Bachelet's framing of her campaign around defending multilateralism and international law, noting her withdrawal ended an attempt that struggled to gain traction. Al Jazeera highlighted the historical significance of the race, noting Bachelet's bid to become the first woman to lead the UN in its 80-year history, and detailed the sharp decline in her support from six 'encourage' votes in July to one in September. PassBlue provided granular data on the straw poll results, noting that while Grynspan reached the nine-vote threshold, she also received five 'discourage' votes, with sources suggesting two may have come from China and Russia, indicating a lack of consensus among veto-wielding powers.

Why it matters

The outcome of this race will determine the leadership of the UN during a period of significant geopolitical crisis and financial strain. The lack of consensus among Security Council members, particularly the veto-wielding powers, suggests that the next secretary-general may face continued deadlock on key issues like Gaza and Ukraine. The withdrawal of a high-profile candidate like Bachelet signals the difficulty in achieving the broad international consensus required for the role.

What to watch

The Security Council may hold a fourth straw poll after the General Assembly's high-level week, which opens next week in New York. The council must reach consensus to formally recommend a single candidate to the 193-member General Assembly for election. New candidates may still enter the race, and the process remains opaque with no definitive front-runner established.