Guyana's Rodrigues Birkett leads UN Security Council's second secret straw poll for secretary-general

Key points

• Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana received eight 'encourage' votes, narrowly leading the field.
• Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica and Rafael Grossi of Argentina each received seven 'encourage' votes.
• Olara Otunnu of Uganda saw the sharpest increase in support, doubling his 'encourage' votes from two to five.
• No candidate achieved the nine affirmative votes needed to command a lead under UN Charter Article 27.
• The next straw poll date has not been announced, and the process will continue through late 2026.

Background

The race to succeed Antonio Guterres, whose second term ends on December 31, 2026, has been marked by informal regional rotation expectations favoring Latin America and the Caribbean. The first straw poll on July 30 saw Grynspan lead with 10 'encourage' votes, while Rodrigues Birkett followed with nine. The current cycle includes eight candidates, with Ivonne A-Baki of Ecuador joining after the first poll. The Security Council's straw polls are non-binding and designed to gauge support before a formal recommendation is sent to the General Assembly.

How outlets are covering it

PassBlue and Al Jazeera both report that Rodrigues Birkett leads the second straw poll, with PassBlue emphasizing the lack of a clear majority and Al Jazeera noting the close race. France 24 provides a detailed breakdown of the eight candidates, highlighting their backgrounds and the informal regional rotation. The Guardian focuses on Rodrigues Birkett's personal story and her potential to be the first woman and first Caribbean national to hold the post, while also noting the challenges she would face. The International Crisis Group's Daniel Forti, cited by PassBlue, suggests that the lack of a significant majority may encourage new candidates to enter the race. Al Jazeera and France 24 both note the potential for vetoes by the five permanent members, while PassBlue highlights the shifting support for candidates like Otunnu and the decline for Bachelet.

Why it matters

The outcome of the UN secretary-general race will shape the organization's ability to address global conflicts, climate change, and development challenges. The lack of a clear leader in the second straw poll indicates a fragmented Council, which could delay the selection process and impact the UN's effectiveness in the coming years. The race also highlights the ongoing debate over regional rotation and gender representation in global leadership.

What to watch

The Security Council is expected to hold additional straw polls in the coming months, potentially using color-coded ballots to reveal vetoes. The General Assembly will formally appoint the next secretary-general by December 31, 2026, following the Council's recommendation. The process may see new candidates enter the race if no clear leader emerges.