Hormuz Flows Rebound, Capping Oil Rally, Goldman Says

Goldman Sachs says crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to about two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran war’s impact on global oil prices. Exports via Hormuz are around 15–16 million barrels per day, still 7–8 million below pre-conflict levels, but up from a March trough of 5–6 mbpd. The rise in dark-tanker flows and ship-to-ship transfers shows producers are adapting to the disruption, which could moderate upside to prices even if the conflict persists. With crude around $89 per barrel (down from above $120 in April) and LNG/refined-fuel flows still pressured, the oil market remains a balance of ongoing supply disruptions and resilient demand.