EU leaders scramble for contingency plans as Merz’s collapse threatens German stability

Key points

• Merz’s approval rating has dropped to 13%, making him the most unpopular German leader in polling history, according to The Week.
• The CDU failed to reach the 5% parliamentary threshold in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while the far-right AfD won 38.2% of the vote in that state, per The Week and WSJ.
• Two EU governments have held internal sessions to game out the implications of Merz’s potential removal from office, according to POLITICO.
• Merz is the chief negotiator for wealthy EU countries seeking to reduce the bloc’s 2 trillion euro seven-year budget, a role that could be disrupted by his political weakness, per POLITICO.
• The AfD’s rise has caused a rift with other European far-right parties, including France’s National Rally, which has distanced itself due to the AfD’s extremist positions and ties to Russia, according to CNN.

Background

This crisis follows a period of economic stagnation in Germany, with average annual growth since 2020 slumping to 0.12%, according to The Week. The loss of approximately 124,100 industrial jobs last year has fueled support for both far-right and far-left rivals, as noted by POLITICO. The current turmoil is part of a broader trend of far-right gains across Europe, though the AfD’s specific positions on Russia and Ukraine have alienated some of its traditional allies, as reported by CNN.

How outlets are covering it

POLITICO emphasizes the immediate risk to EU policymaking, noting that Merz’s domestic weakness could lead him to double down on hardline budget positions to score a political win, potentially stalling negotiations. The Week focuses on the 'zombie' nature of Merz’s leadership, highlighting his historically low approval ratings and the existential crisis facing the CDU. WSJ frames the AfD’s rise as a legacy of Angela Merkel’s past policies, arguing that establishment consensus created a vacuum for populist parties. CNN highlights the ideological split within the European far-right, noting that parties like France’s National Rally and Italy’s Brothers of Italy are distancing themselves from the AfD due to its extremist rhetoric and pro-Russia stance, even as other leaders like Viktor Orbán and Geert Wilders offer congratulations.

Why it matters

The stability of Germany’s government is crucial for the entire European Union, as Berlin is the bloc’s largest economy and a key driver of policy. A leadership vacuum or a shift to a far-right government could derail critical negotiations on the EU budget, industrial policy, and foreign affairs, potentially weakening Europe’s global standing and internal cohesion.

What to watch

EU officials will continue to monitor the situation in Berlin closely, with contingency planning likely to intensify if Merz’s political position deteriorates further. The CDU and SPD coalition partners are expected to maintain their alliance to avoid early elections, which could benefit the AfD. The outcome of the 2027 French presidential election, where Marine Le Pen is a candidate, will also be watched as a potential indicator of the broader far-right trend in Europe.