Ipsos Data Shows Democrats Widen Midterm Lead to 9 Points as Trump Approval Plummets
A new Ipsos analysis of the Reuters/Ipsos Core Political survey, conducted October 22-26, 2026, reveals that Democrats hold a 9-point advantage over Republicans among likely voters for the 2026 generic congressional ballot. The data indicates 53% of likely voters favor or lean toward Democratic candidates, compared to 44% for Republicans. This shift correlates with a sharp decline in President Donald Trump’s approval ratings, with only 32% approving of his overall performance and just 25% approving of his economic handling. Public frustration with the cost of living has intensified, with only 20% approving of the administration’s approach to living costs. The Democratic party now leads on economic competence by 6 points, a significant reversal from the 17-point Republican advantage seen in January 2025. While Republican base support has softened, with fewer voters strongly approving of the president’s economic record, Democrats continue to show higher enthusiasm for voting in the upcoming midterms.
Key points
- Democrats lead Republicans by 9 points among likely voters on the 2026 generic congressional ballot, with 53% favoring Democrats versus 44% for Republicans.
- President Trump’s overall approval rating stands at 32%, with only 25% approving of his handling of the economy and 20% approving of his management of the cost of living.
- The Democratic party now leads on economic competence by 6 points (34% vs. 28%), reversing a 17-point Republican advantage from January 2025.
- Support within the Republican base has weakened, as 62% approve of the president’s economic handling but only 48% approve of his cost-of-living management, with 'somewhat' approval (42%) now exceeding 'strongly' approval (34%).
- The survey, based on 1,679 adults, found that Democrats express higher voting enthusiasm than Republicans in the fall midterm elections.
Background
This latest polling data aligns with earlier coverage from October 5, 2026, which noted Democrats holding a significant advantage driven by voter dissatisfaction with rising prices and record-low approval ratings for President Trump. Previous reports from October 21 and 25 highlighted a 10-point Democratic lead and projected House gains, though analysts noted that voter motivation was often driven by opposition to the president rather than support for specific Democratic policies. The current Ipsos findings confirm the persistence of this economic dissatisfaction and the narrowing of Republican support even among their own base, consistent with the trend of softening approval ratings observed in late October.
Why it matters
The 9-point Democratic lead on the generic ballot signals a substantial shift in public sentiment heading into the 2026 midterms, driven primarily by economic dissatisfaction rather than partisan loyalty. The decline in Trump’s approval ratings, particularly regarding the cost of living, suggests that the Republican party faces a significant challenge in retaining its base and persuading independents. This data indicates that the 2026 election may be defined by a 'punishment' vote against the incumbent administration, potentially leading to a major change in congressional control if current trends hold through Election Day.
What to watch
Analysts will closely monitor whether the 9-point lead translates into actual seat gains in the House and Senate, particularly in competitive states like Texas, Ohio, and Alaska. The next few weeks will focus on whether the softened support within the Republican base can be reinvigorated or if the economic dissatisfaction continues to drive voters toward the Democratic party. Additionally, the high level of Democratic enthusiasm compared to Republicans may influence final turnout rates, which could be decisive in close races.
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