Israel Election: Exit Polls Show Eisenkot Bloc Leads but Falls Short of Majority, Leaving Arab Parties as Keymakers

Key points

• Eisenkot’s bloc is projected to win 52-53 seats, while Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to win 50 seats, leaving both short of the 61-seat majority required to form a government.
• Arab-majority parties, including the United Arab List and the Joint List, are projected to win a record 17-18 seats, making them potential kingmakers in coalition negotiations.
• Voter turnout reached 77.7%, the highest since 1999, with particularly high participation among Arab voters, which Netanyahu described as an 'emergency' during the campaign.
• Eisenkot declared the results a 'complete vote of no confidence' in Netanyahu and pledged to act immediately to replace the government, while Netanyahu’s allies called left-wing celebrations 'premature.'
• Official vote counting has begun, but results may take days to finalize due to 600,000 absentee ballots, mostly from military personnel, and approximately 10% of total votes not yet counted.

Background

The October 27, 2026 Israeli election was widely viewed as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership following the October 2023 Hamas attack and ongoing regional conflicts. Pre-election polls had consistently shown a deadlock between the two main blocs, with neither side able to secure a majority. The election followed a campaign marked by intense rhetoric, with Netanyahu warning of an 'emergency' due to high Arab voter turnout and Eisenkot campaigning on accountability for security failures. Previous elections, including the 2022 vote, had also resulted in fragmented parliaments, leading to prolonged coalition negotiations or caretaker governments.

How outlets are covering it

BBC News emphasized the 'meaningless consolation prize' for Netanyahu’s Likud party being the largest single party, while highlighting the 'very, very bad night' for his coalition. Al Jazeera focused on the potential for Arab-led lists to 'ask for things' that Jewish-led coalitions may not want to give, and noted Netanyahu’s efforts to prevent defections from his party. Axios highlighted the possibility of Eisenkot forming a minority government supported by Arab parties, while noting that Netanyahu’s coalition shed 14 seats from the 64 it won in 2022. All sources agreed on the fragmented nature of the results and the critical role of Arab parties in determining the outcome.

Why it matters

The election results will determine the future of Israel’s government and its approach to security, regional conflicts, and domestic policy. The fragmented parliament may lead to prolonged coalition negotiations, a caretaker government, or a second round of voting. The outcome will also impact Israel’s relationships with international partners and its ability to address the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the West Bank. The high turnout and the potential for Arab parties to become kingmakers signal a shift in Israeli politics, with voters seeking accountability and change after years of conflict and political instability.

What to watch

Official results will begin releasing at 22:00 GMT, with full counting extending into Thursday due to 600,000 absentee ballots. President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders to determine who has the best chance of forming a government. Coalition negotiations may take weeks or months, with options including a minority government supported by Arab parties, a unity government, or a second round of voting. The outcome will depend on whether parties are willing to break their election promises and form coalitions with previously excluded parties.