Liberman Isolates from Opposition Bloc, Waits for Potential Netanyahu-Eisenkot Deal

Key points

• Liberman cut off contact with Bennett and Eisenkot on October 28, the day after the election, and has not answered calls from opposition figures since.
• Yisrael Beytenu is projected to win seven seats, a decrease from the nine seats anticipated in pre-election polls, with some mandates shifting to Bennett’s B'Yachad party.
• Liberman maintains two strict conditions: he will not join a Netanyahu-led coalition, nor will he support a government dependent on Arab party backing.
• Sources indicate Liberman prefers that Eisenkot, rather than himself, be the opposition leader to potentially join Netanyahu’s bloc.
• Liberman’s strategy relied on Likud fracturing, a gamble that failed as Likud remained the largest faction in the Knesset.
• He is currently 'lying in wait,' hoping for security escalations or other developments that might create opportunities for realignment.

Background

The October 27 election resulted in a stalemate, with Netanyahu’s bloc projected to win 53 seats and the opposition bloc 48, both short of the 61 needed for a majority. Arab-led parties hold a record 19 seats, complicating coalition dynamics. Prior to the vote, opposition leaders signed a non-aggression pact to challenge Netanyahu, but ideological fractures remain, particularly regarding Arab party inclusion.

How outlets are covering it

The Jerusalem Post and Israel National News agree that Liberman has cut ties with the opposition bloc and refuses to join Netanyahu’s government. However, they differ on the rationale: The Jerusalem Post suggests Liberman is waiting for a security escalation to open realignment opportunities, while Israel National News emphasizes his rigid conditions against both Netanyahu and Arab party support. Both sources confirm Liberman prefers Eisenkot to be the one to potentially cross over to Netanyahu’s side.

Why it matters

Liberman’s isolation complicates coalition formation in a fragmented Knesset. His refusal to join either bloc, combined with his preference for Eisenkot to bridge the gap, could delay government formation and prolong Netanyahu’s caretaker status. The deadlock also highlights the continued influence of Arab-led parties, which both major blocs resist including in a coalition.

What to watch

President Isaac Herzog will begin consultations next week to form a government. Liberman’s stance may force Eisenkot or Bennett to make concessions, or it could lead to a prolonged caretaker government. The outcome will depend on whether security escalations or other political shifts alter the current deadlock.