Merz’s Low-Profile Campaign Highlights CDU’s Crisis in Saxony-Anhalt
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is keeping a low profile during the CDU’s campaign in Saxony-Anhalt as the party faces a potential defeat to the far-right AfD. Merz’s unpopularity is dragging down national support for the CDU, while the AfD has overtaken the conservatives in polls. The upcoming election could force the CDU into difficult coalition negotiations or a minority government, threatening the stability of Merz’s coalition and the broader European political landscape.
Key points
- Merz avoided public rallies in Saxony-Anhalt, opting for closed-door meetings due to his low approval ratings and the party’s poor polling.
- The AfD is polling above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt and could win an outright majority, signaling a failure of the CDU’s 'firewall' strategy against the far right.
- National support for the CDU/CSU has dropped to 20-22%, while the AfD has become Germany’s most popular party at 28%.
- If the AfD fails to secure a majority, the CDU may face a minority government reliant on left-wing support or be forced to depend on AfD votes, potentially causing a party split.
- Merz’s coalition with the SPD is under strain, with 85% of Germans expressing dissatisfaction with the chancellor in recent surveys.
Background
Merz took office in 2025 after a decade out of politics, promising to shift the CDU rightward and curb the AfD’s rise. His tenure has been marked by internal party conflicts, including a botched cabinet reshuffle, and economic struggles due to tariffs and high energy costs. Previous regional elections in eastern Germany have shown growing support for the AfD, while Merz’s 'firewall' strategy of isolating the far right has not slowed its momentum. The current situation follows earlier security concerns, such as the Leipzig drone incident, which highlighted broader threats to German stability.
Why it matters
The Saxony-Anhalt election is a critical test for Merz’s leadership and the CDU’s viability. A major AfD victory could destabilize Germany’s political center, impact the Merz-SPD coalition, and influence far-right movements in other European countries facing upcoming elections. The outcome may also determine whether the CDU can maintain its traditional stance or is forced into unprecedented alliances.
What to watch
Further regional elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on September 20 will test the AfD’s momentum. The CDU may need to reconsider its strategy if the AfD continues to gain ground, while Merz faces pressure to deliver economic and social reforms to regain public trust.
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